Texas Is the Senate Race of the Cycle. Here's Where It Stands.
The May 26 GOP runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton is the most expensive primary in American history. Meanwhile, Democrat James Talarico is leading both of them in the polls. Yes, in Texas.
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. The last Democratic senator from the Lone Star State was Lloyd Bentsen, elected in 1988. Texas polls have a habit of overstating Democratic support — ask Beto O'Rourke or Colin Allred. And yet: every piece of data from the past month suggests this race is genuinely competitive, and one of the two Republicans who emerges from the May 26 runoff may be fatally wounded for November.
The numbers are staggering. State Rep. James Talarico raised $27 million in Q1 2026 — the largest first-quarter haul for any Senate candidate in any state in a midterm year, ever. He outraised Georgia's Jon Ossoff, Ohio's Sherrod Brown, and North Carolina's Roy Cooper. He has $9.9 million cash on hand heading into May, more than either Republican. He's received donations from 540,000 individual contributors across 246 of Texas's 254 counties.
Meanwhile, the GOP primary has become an all-out war. Cornyn and Paxton have spent over $100 million combined — most of it attacking each other. The runoff is 26 days away, Trump still hasn't endorsed, and the state's top Republican leaders — Governor Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick, Senator Cruz — are all staying neutral.
The Runoff: Cornyn vs. Paxton
Cornyn edged Paxton 42% to 41% in the March 3 primary, with Wesley Hunt pulling 13% as a distant third. Neither cleared 50%, triggering the May 26 runoff. A TPOR poll from April 6-7 showed Paxton leading by 8 points among likely runoff voters — a reversal from the primary result that reflects Paxton's advantage with the most conservative, most motivated GOP base voters who dominate low-turnout runoffs.
The Trump Factor
On March 4, Trump said he would endorse "soon" and call on the other candidate to drop out. Nearly two months later, no endorsement has materialized. Three people involved in the race told CNN they no longer expect Trump to get involved — though they caution he could still change his mind. The TPOR poll found that even a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would only narrow Paxton's lead to 45-42, while a Paxton endorsement would blow the race open at 55-35. The MAGA base in Texas is with Paxton.
The irony of the race is that Cornyn's allies have spent tens of millions arguing he's the stronger general election candidate — and the data largely supports that claim. But Paxton's pitch to primary voters is simpler: Cornyn is a creature of the establishment, he supported Ukraine aid and bipartisan gun legislation, and Texas deserves a true conservative. Paxton's ongoing securities fraud charges and his public divorce have done surprisingly little to dent his support.
The General Election: Talarico's Opening
The TPOR poll (April 17-20, 1,018 likely general election voters, ±3.3%) found Talarico leading Cornyn 44-41 and Paxton 46-41. A separate poll from the UT/Texas Politics Project showed similar results. Neither Republican cracks 42% in any matchup. Talarico's support is powered by voters of color, college-educated Texans, and independents — exactly the coalition Democrats need to win statewide.
The most alarming number for Republicans: 24% of Cornyn voters say they would be likely to vote for Talarico if Paxton is the nominee. Only 10% of Paxton voters say the same about a Cornyn general election. If that 24% defection rate holds, it could represent roughly 10% of the entire Republican primary electorate crossing party lines — more than enough to swing a close race.
"If 24% of Cornyn's voters in this runoff defect to the Democrat, that's something in the realm of 10% of the Republican primary electorate that could cross party lines."
Evan Roth Smith, Slingshot StrategiesBoth Cornyn and Paxton are underwater on favorability. The TPOR poll found Cornyn at -15 and Paxton at -10 among general election voters. Talarico, by contrast, is net positive at +7 (41% favorable, 34% unfavorable). For a Democrat in Texas, that's remarkable name recognition built on a $40 million investment.
Why Skeptics Still Have a Case
Before Democrats start measuring curtains, some caveats. Texas polls have systematically overstated Democratic strength in recent cycles. O'Rourke was polling competitively with Ted Cruz in 2018 and lost by 2.6 points. Allred polled within striking distance of Cruz in 2024 and lost by 6. The fundamental partisan lean of the state remains R+5 to R+8 depending on the metric.
Cook Political Report still rates the seat "Lean R" — not Toss-Up. The GOP runoff, while bruising, will produce a nominee who can consolidate Republican voters. Texas's straight-ticket voting culture is powerful. And Talarico, a 33-year-old state representative from Austin, has never run statewide.
But the counterargument is simpler: the national environment is historically bad for the president's party, Trump is at record-low approval, the Iran war is unpopular, gas is $4.23 a gallon, and Democrats are overperforming everywhere. If Texas is going to flip for the first time in 32 years, this is the year the conditions are right.
Key Dates
May 26: Republican runoff (Cornyn vs. Paxton). June 12: General election candidate filing deadline. Nov. 3: General election. Cook Rating: Lean R. Sabato: Lean R. Inside Elections: Lean R.