Florida Primary Results: Donalds vs Jolly, Moody vs Nixon

Florida’s Aug 18 primary set every statewide ballot in a cycle where Republicans have dominated the state for a decade. Republicans control the governorship, both U.S. Senate seats, and every other statewide office, and Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024. Democrats have not won a Florida gubernatorial election since 1994. Against that backdrop, the primary result mattered mostly for what it revealed about the coalitions inside each party — and one of the reveals was substantial.

Governor: Donalds (Trump) beat Collins (DeSantis)

The Republican gubernatorial primary was, from the moment Trump endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds, a test of whether the president or the outgoing governor commands the state GOP. Donalds took the nomination with 47.8% of the vote, defeating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (DeSantis’s pick), entrepreneur James Fishback, and former state House Speaker Paul Renner.

The result is not close and the message is not subtle. DeSantis’s once-formidable statewide operation could not deliver a primary win for his handpicked successor. In a state where Trump won by 13 points in 2024 and where the Republican primary electorate skews heavily toward the president, the endorsement carried the day handily.

Donalds enters the general election with a united Republican Party behind him and every structural advantage the state offers. He is a heavy favorite.

Governor: Jolly’s party-switch playbook

Former Republican Rep. David Jolly took the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 61% of the vote after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings dropped out earlier in the summer citing health concerns. Jolly’s trajectory is unusual and worth stating plainly:

• Elected to Congress as a Republican in a 2014 Tampa-area special election.
• Left the Republican Party in 2018, largely over his opposition to Trump.
• Registered as an independent, then as a Democrat in April 2025.
• Now the Democratic nominee for governor of Florida in 2026.

He is not the first party-switcher Florida Democrats have nominated for governor. Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor, ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat in 2014 and again in 2022. The 2022 comparison is unfavorable: Crist lost to DeSantis by 19 points despite Crist’s statewide name recognition. Jolly’s name recognition inside Florida is lower than Crist’s was; his national profile from MSNBC commentary is arguably higher.

Jolly’s platform emphasizes affordability, property insurance costs, education funding, and gun-safety measures. He will run explicitly against Trump-era Florida politics. That is the correct case to make and probably still not enough in a Trump +13 state.

Senate: the Nixon upset

The larger surprise came on the Democratic side of the Senate primary. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and a Jacksonville-based state legislator, defeated retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman — the former NSC aide who became a household name during the 2019 Trump impeachment inquiry — despite Vindman substantially outraising her.

Vindman came into the primary with the national donor class behind him, universal name recognition, and a March internal poll that had him trailing Nixon by only three points among Democratic primary voters (46% Nixon vs. 43% Vindman, 12% undecided). His campaign message centered on national-security credibility and defense of democratic institutions. It did not translate.

Nixon’s pitch was economic: cost of living, corporate power, and health-care access. She was one of the Black state lawmakers who led opposition to Florida’s 2022 and 2026 Republican redistricting plans (both of which passed). She sits in the DSA’s Florida chapter.

DSA on the march

Nixon becomes the fourth major DSA-adjacent progressive to win or nearly win a competitive primary in 2026:

• Abdul El-Sayed — Michigan Senate (Aug 4), defeated Rep. Haley Stevens despite an 8-to-1 spending disadvantage.
• Peggy Flanagan — Minnesota Senate (Aug 11), defeated Rep. Angie Craig roughly 59–40 for the Democratic nomination.
• Francesca Hong — Wisconsin Governor (Aug 11), lost the Democratic primary by only 0.4 points — 3,200 votes out of 700,000 — to David Crowley. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined to endorse in that race.
• Angie Nixon — Florida Senate (Aug 18), defeated Alex Vindman.

That is not a fringe pattern. In three of four cycles the progressive won outright; in the fourth, the progressive came within a photo-finish margin. This is a movement with real primary-electorate traction in states as different as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Florida.

Moody’s setup

Republican Sen. Ashley Moody was appointed to the seat by Gov. DeSantis in January 2025 when Marco Rubio became Secretary of State. She won the Republican primary Tuesday with 75.3%, defeating three challengers of no particular consequence. She now runs against Nixon (D) and independent Neil Gillespie for the last two years of Rubio’s original term.

Moody enters the general as a strong favorite. Public polling from earlier this year had her leading both potential Democratic opponents by five to eight points, and Nixon’s DSA membership will feature prominently in Republican advertising. Cook rates the seat Likely R; Sabato has it Safe R.

The 13-point uphill climb

Every Florida race starts against the same headwind: Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024, a shift of roughly ten points from 2020. Florida is not the swing state it was through 2016. Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 2018 (Nikki Fried, agriculture commissioner), and they have not won a top-of-ticket race since Bill Nelson’s 2012 Senate re-election.

Both Democratic nominees on Tuesday cleared the primary. Winning in November is a different problem.

What to watch

The most interesting fall dynamic in Florida is what national money does. If the DNC and Senate Majority PAC treat Nixon as a serious candidate and fund a real ground operation, the Senate race gets closer than the fundamentals suggest — not close enough to win, but close enough to force Republican resource allocation. If the national party writes Florida off, both races finish in the standard Republican margin.

Watch Vindman’s reaction. His fundraising list and national profile could shape whether Nixon runs a real campaign or a symbolic one. And watch whether Trump chooses to spend any of his political capital on down-ballot Florida races — DeSantis’s primary loss will not go unnoticed.