August 18 Primary Recap: Trump’s Endorsement Cracks, Progressives Roll On
Three states voted Tuesday and California ran a special-election runoff. Trump’s endorsement lost twice on the same night, a democratic socialist won a Senate primary, and Aisha Wahab held California’s 14th District despite $2.5 million in AIPAC-funded opposition. Here is what happened and what it means with 76 days to Election Day.
The Aug 18 primary was the second-biggest primary night of the summer after Aug 11, and produced enough distinct storylines to complicate every clean narrative about the 2026 cycle. Progressives are still winning open primaries. Trump’s endorsement is not a universal shield. The Alaska Senate race just became a genuine toss-up. And AIPAC spent more money than usual and still lost. Five things happened. Here they are in order.
The five storylines
- Alaska: Peltola led Sullivan 48–43 in the top-four primary. Genuine toss-up for November.
- Florida governor: Trump’s pick Byron Donalds beat DeSantis’s pick Jay Collins. Faces party-switcher David Jolly in the general.
- Florida Senate: DSA-member Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman despite being outraised. Faces appointed Sen. Ashley Moody.
- Wyoming governor: State Sen. Eric Barlow beat Trump-endorsed Megan Degenfelder. Second Trump gubernatorial primary loss in eight days.
- CA-14: Aisha Wahab holds a narrow lead over Melissa Hernandez to fill Eric Swalwell’s seat, despite $2.5M in AIPAC-funded opposition.
Alaska: Peltola outperforms
Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) led incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) roughly 48% to 43% in the Aug 18 top-four primary — the largest margin any Alaska Democrat has posted in a Senate first count since 2008. Both advance to the ranked-choice November general along with a second, unrelated Republican also named Dan Sullivan, whom the Alaska GOP fought to keep off the ballot and dubbed “Decoy Dan.” Trump personally warned Alaskans not to vote for the challenger.
Peltola raised $18 million through the pre-primary filing period against Sullivan’s $8 million, and days before the primary she publicly rejected fundraising support from a PAC associated with former Vice President Kamala Harris — a signal that she intends to hold the crossover voters who backed her in 2022 and 2024. Alaska is one of only four true Senate toss-ups this cycle. Full Alaska recap and general-election analysis.
Florida: the ballot is set
Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with 47.8%, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (DeSantis’s pick), James Fishback, and former House Speaker Paul Renner. He faces former GOP Rep. David Jolly, who took the Democratic nomination with 61%. Jolly left the Republican Party in 2018 over Trump and registered as a Democrat in April 2025. He is the second consecutive party-switcher Florida Democrats have nominated for governor after Charlie Crist in 2022. Trump carried Florida by 13 points in 2024.
For Senate, appointed Sen. Ashley Moody took the GOP primary with 75.3%. She faces state Rep. Angie Nixon — who upset former NSC aide Alex Vindman despite being substantially outraised. The full Florida recap has more on both races.
Nixon is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Her win makes her the fourth DSA-adjacent progressive to win or nearly win a major primary this cycle after El-Sayed (MI-Sen), Flanagan (MN-Sen), and Hong’s narrow loss in WI-Gov. The pattern is not confined to blue states.
Wyoming: Trump lost the governor’s race
The Wyoming Republican gubernatorial primary was the highest-profile Trump loss of the night. State Sen. Eric Barlow defeated Trump-endorsed state Superintendent Megan Degenfelder and party-endorsed Marine colonel Brent Bien in a four-way primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Mark Gordon. Wyoming is a state Trump carried by 46 points in 2024. Degenfelder had his explicit backing and lost anyway.
Rep. Harriet Hageman (R, Trump-endorsed) won the crowded 5-way Senate primary to replace retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis and faces former state Rep. James Byrd (D). Hageman ousted Liz Cheney with Trump’s endorsement in 2022 and cruised this time. Wyoming has not elected a Democratic senator since 1970 — Safe R.
The Barlow win is not consequential for November. It is consequential for the endorsement scorecard. Full Wyoming recap.
CA-14: Wahab holds despite AIPAC
State Sen. Aisha Wahab led BART Board President Melissa Hernandez by roughly 1,300 votes (51% to 49%) as of Wednesday morning, in the runoff to fill former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s East Bay seat. Late counting continues; certification is set for September 25.
The race attracted an unusual amount of outside money for a five-month interim term. AIPAC’s United Democracy Project spent nearly $2.5 million against Wahab in the closing weeks, running ads focused on public safety. Wahab, the first Muslim and Afghan American elected to the California State Senate, has been an outspoken critic of Israeli military policy in Gaza. The result: she narrowed the margin but held her lead.
The interim-term winner will be sworn in only after certification and serves until January 3. Wahab and Hernandez rematch in November under California’s new Proposition 50 map for the full two-year term. The special election also gave Democrats their fourth federal-special-election win of the cycle in which the party overperformed the 2024 presidential margin.
Cory Mills: the first Trump-endorsed House incumbent to fall
Republican Rep. Cory Mills lost his Florida-07 primary amid a flurry of probes and negative publicity. Trump had endorsed him; the endorsement did not save him. Mills becomes the first Trump-endorsed House incumbent to lose renomination this cycle.
Add him to Massie (Kentucky, ousted with Trump’s active help), Thanedar (Michigan, ousted by a Sanders-backed progressive), Larson (Connecticut, ousted on generational-change grounds), and the two ousted Senate incumbents (Cornyn and Cassidy), and 2026 now has six sitting members of Congress who have lost renomination. Two by the left, one by intra-party generational politics, and three by Trump — but the Mills case is the first where Trump backed the incumbent and lost.
Trump endorsement scorecard
Between August 11 and August 18, three Trump-endorsed candidates lost primaries:
Trump’s wins the same week included Byron Donalds (FL Gov), Harriet Hageman (WY Sen), Ashley Moody (FL Sen), and Tom Tiffany (WI Gov Republican primary). The record is still net positive. It is also visibly cracked in a way that it hasn’t been at any earlier point in this cycle.
The next test comes fast: Trump-endorsed appointed Sen. Darline Graham faces Rep. Ralph Norman in the South Carolina Senate runoff on August 25. Trump has said he will campaign for Graham personally.
Progressive scorecard
The other reliable pattern of the summer: progressives are winning open Democratic primaries.
- Aug 4: Abdul El-Sayed defeats Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-Sen) despite an 8-to-1 spending disadvantage.
- Aug 11: Peggy Flanagan defeats Rep. Angie Craig (MN-Sen) roughly 59–40.
- Aug 11: Francesca Hong loses to David Crowley (WI-Gov) by 0.4 points — 3,200 votes.
- Aug 18: Angie Nixon defeats Alex Vindman (FL-Sen) despite being outraised.
Three primary wins and one photo-finish loss in a two-week span. The general election viability of each nominee is a separate question — El-Sayed in Michigan is genuinely competitive, Flanagan and Nixon are heavier lifts — but the primary pattern is undeniable and does not fit either the “progressive movement is over” or “progressives only win in safe blue districts” narrative.
What’s next
The most important dates on the calendar:
- August 25 — South Carolina Republican Senate runoff (Graham vs. Norman); GA-13 special runoff (Scott vs. Blair); Oklahoma Democratic Senate runoff (Thomas vs. Priest).
- September 8 — New Hampshire primary, the last competitive Senate nomination on the board.
- September 25 — California’s certification deadline for the CA-14 special.
- November 3 — Election Day.
Track it all at the Election Tracker dashboard.