Tuesday, August 11 is the next big night of the cycle: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin hold their regular primaries, and South Carolina Republicans hold the special primary for the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by Lindsey Graham, who died in July. Here is the viewing guide.
South Carolina: the race for Graham’s seat
The marquee event. The rushed special primary to replace Graham has drawn a crowded Republican field, with Rep. Ralph Norman leading recent polling and former governor Mark Sanford mounting a comeback bid from the field behind him. In deep-red South Carolina, the Republican nomination is close to the whole ballgame — and with a multi-candidate field, the real question Tuesday night may simply be who makes the runoff, which would be held August 25 if no one clears 50 percent. Watch the Norman number: a first-round knockout would signal MAGA consolidation; a runoff opens two more weeks of chaos.
Minnesota: an open Senate seat and a wild GOP undercard
Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, and the Democratic primary to succeed her is the latest round of the party’s civil war — moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. It has been fierce, though not quite the scorched-earth affair Michigan just produced. After El-Sayed’s win, a Flanagan victory would make it two-for-two for the left in open-seat Senate primaries; a Craig win would hand the moderates their first big statewide counterpunch of the cycle. On the Republican side, retired NBC sportscaster Michele Tafoya is the primary frontrunner.
The GOP’s gubernatorial primary, meanwhile, features state House Speaker Lisa Demuth, businessman Kendall Qualls — and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, who has Trump’s endorsement and leads most recent primary polls despite general-election prospects that race-watchers rate as slight. If Lindell wins Tuesday, Minnesota Republicans will spend the fall explaining an election-denier nominee in a state they have not won statewide in two decades.
Wisconsin: everything is open
Gov. Tony Evers is not seeking re-election, and in a historical oddity, the governorship, the state Senate majority leader’s post, and the Assembly speakership are all changing hands at once — the first time since 2010. The Democratic gubernatorial primary is the heated one, an ideological brawl that includes democratic socialist state legislator Francesca Hong among the contenders. Wisconsin is the ultimate 50-50 state; whichever Democrat emerges inherits a genuine toss-up, and the primary’s ideological outcome will be read — fairly or not — as another data point in the left-versus-establishment war.
Connecticut and Vermont
Both states also vote Tuesday with governor and House races on the ballot. Neither hosts a marquee statewide fight, but keep an eye on House primaries for the same insurgent-versus-incumbent pattern that has defined the cycle.
Every major contest Tuesday is a proxy for the same question: how far left is the Democratic electorate willing to go, and how MAGA is the Republican one? Flanagan-Craig, the Wisconsin Dem field, Lindell’s ceiling, and Norman’s margin are four readings of the same two thermometers.
We will have results and updated ratings on the main board Tuesday night, with full analysis Wednesday. If South Carolina goes to a runoff, circle August 25.