2026 Midterm Elections

Georgia Governor (R) Runoff: In a major upset, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson narrowly defeated Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — another Trump endorsement loss. Jackson overcame a late Trump endorsement for Jones, joining Iowa (Feenstra) and South Carolina (Evette-to-runoff) as 2026 races where Trump’s pick faltered. General election set: Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) in one of November’s marquee governor races.

Georgia Senate (R) Runoff: Rep. Mike Collins won handily over former football coach Derek Dooley. Trump gave Collins a last-minute endorsement. General election set: Collins (R) vs. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Cook rates this Lean D — Ossoff has $25M+ cash on hand and enters untouched while Collins limped through a bruising primary season.

Georgia Redistricting — SCRAPPED. The Georgia legislature convened its special session on June 17 — the day after the runoffs — but both chambers immediately refused to redraw maps. House Speaker Jon Burns and Senate Pro Tem Larry Walker sent letters to Gov. Kemp declining to take up redistricting, citing pending litigation in other states. Protesters chanted “Black voters matter!” inside the Capitol. Kemp expressed disappointment but said the decision belongs to the legislature. Georgia will use existing maps for both 2026 and 2028 — for now. The session pivoted to tax relief and ratifying the gas tax suspension instead.

Alabama Senate (R) Runoff: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore defeated former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, securing the GOP nomination for the seat vacated by Tommy Tuberville (running for governor). Safe R in November. A separate Dem runoff was also held.

Oklahoma Senate: Rep. Kevin Hern (Trump-endorsed) won the GOP primary with 67.6% — a dominant showing for the seat vacated by DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. On the Dem side, no candidate reached 50%; N’Kiyla Thomas and Jim Priest advance to an August 25 runoff. Deep red Oklahoma — Safe R.

Oklahoma Governor: The large GOP field triggered a crowded primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt. Trump-endorsed Mike Mazzei and AG Gentner Drummond led in polling. The winner will face Dem Nick Coffey in Safe R territory.

OK-01 (Hern’s vacated seat): Crowded GOP primary for the Tulsa-area seat. Trump endorsed pastor Jackson Lahmeyer. Runoff likely if no one clears 50%. Safe R.

CA-14 Special Primary (Jun 16): Top-two primary for the seat vacated by Eric Swalwell. Wahab (D) and Hernandez were the expected leaders heading in. D+20 district — safe Dem hold. Special election set for August 18.

Maine Senate: Graham Platner (D) won the Democratic primary in a landslide, 77.7% to Gov. Janet Mills’ 16.7% (Costello 5.6%). CNN, AP, and DDHQ called it within minutes of polls closing. Platner now faces five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R) in one of the cycle’s marquee Senate races. Despite a series of scandals (Reddit posts, tattoo controversy, marital difficulties), Platner leads Collins by ~7 pts in polling averages. Ranked-choice voting in the general adds a wildcard.

South Carolina Governor (R): Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (~29.5%) and AG Alan Wilson (~26.4%) advance to a June 23 runoff after no candidate cleared 50%. Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman eliminated — Mace conceded and endorsed Wilson, writing “I chose to stand on principle and stand against the Epstein cover-up.” Rom Reddy also eliminated. On the Dem side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson won (~60%). Cook rates this Safe R in November.

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham (R) won his primary easily (~57.7%), fending off Mark Lynch (28.1%). Trump endorsed Graham days before the vote. Pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) won with ~61.1% — Andrews previously lost to Mace in SC-01 in 2022. General: Graham vs. Andrews.

SC-01 (Mace’s vacated seat): Dem primary → June 23 runoff: fired Navy Admiral Nancy Lacore (36.4%) vs. Coast Guard veteran Mac Deford (28.7%). Lacore, the former Chief of Navy Reserve fired by Pete Hegseth, highlighted her dismissal as a campaign centerpiece. GOP primary also heading to a runoff — Honeycutt leads. Cook rates this Safe R.

SC-05 (Norman’s vacated seat): Dem primary: Dittmer leads with 54.3% — if this holds above 50%, no runoff. GOP: state Sen. Wes Climer ran unopposed.

Maine Governor (Dem, RCV): Crowded five-way field with no one near 50%. First-round leaders: Senate Pres. Troy Jackson (23.2%), former Rep. Hannah Pingree (22.7%), and SoS Shenna Bellows. Ranked-choice tabulation will be needed. Jackson, Pingree, and Bellows formed a cross-endorsement alliance. On the GOP side, Bobby Charles leads.

Maine CD-2 (Dem): Baldacci (32.1%) vs Dunlap (29.7%) — still counting, RCV tabulation likely needed.

Nevada: Polls closed at 10 PM ET. AG Aaron Ford (D) was effectively uncontested. In NV-02 (open, Amodei retiring), Trump-endorsed David Flippo faces James Settelmeyer (backed by Amodei and Lombardo). Results pending.

Iowa Senate: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) cruised to the GOP nomination (50+ pt margin over Jim Carlin). Paralympian state Rep. Josh Turek (D) defeated Zach Wahls, 62.6%–37.4%. One of the cycle’s marquee Senate races is now set.

Iowa Governor: Zach Lahn (R) edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra by less than 1 pt (37.8%–37.0%) — Feenstra conceded. Lahn faces Dem Auditor Rob Sand, who ran uncontested.

Montana Senate: Trump-endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme (R) dominated at 76.2%. Air Force vet Alani Bankhead (D) won (43.7%) despite $1M+ in GOP super PAC interference in the Dem primary. First open Montana Senate seat since 1976.

California Governor (still counting): Steve Hilton (R, 27%) and Xavier Becerra (D, 26%) lead the top-two primary with 57% of expected vote counted as of Jun 4. Tom Steyer in third (20%) and fading. Trump endorsed Hilton. Ballots can arrive through Jun 9; SoS certifies by Jul 10.

NJ-07: Former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett (D) won 46% in a 4-way race, overcoming GOP-linked super PAC attack ads. She’ll face Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R), who has been absent from Congress since March (100+ missed votes, citing a “personal medical issue”). A top House battleground.

NJ-12: Dr. Adam Hamawy (D) — progressive, Bernie-endorsed, born in Egypt — won 28.1% in a crowded 13-way race. Faces Greg Mele (R) to succeed retiring Bonnie Watson Coleman.

South Dakota Governor: No candidate hit the 35% runoff threshold. Toby Doeden (31%) and Gov. Larry Rhoden (25%) advance to a July 28 runoff. Rep. Dusty Johnson fell to third (23%). Rhoden replaced Kristi Noem when she joined Trump’s cabinet.

New Mexico Governor: Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (D) won the Dem nomination — could become the first Native American woman governor. She faces former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull (R, 47.0%).

CA House: CA-06: Rep. Kiley* (R) advances with Stansfield (D). CA-07: Rep. Matsui* (D) advances with Vang (D) or Wooden (D) — still counting. CA-14 (vacant): Wahab (D) and Hernandez lead. CA-22: Rep. Valadao* (R, 44.5%) advances with Bains.

Iowa CD-2: Hinson’s vacated seat — Mitchell (R, 61.4%) vs James (D, 57.3%) set for November.

Texas GOP Senate: Ken Paxton crushed four-term incumbent John Cornyn, 62.8% to 37.2% (536,356 to 318,159 votes) — a 25.6-point blowout that wasn’t remotely close. Trump’s May 19 endorsement supercharged a result that exceeded every public poll. Cornyn, the longest-serving Texas senator in state history, becomes the highest-profile victim of Trump’s party purge. Paxton now faces Dem nominee James Talarico in November — and Paxton’s baggage (securities fraud indictment settled 2024, 2023 impeachment acquittal, pending divorce) could make Texas genuinely competitive. Early general election surveys showed Talarico within single digits of both Republicans; expect a rating reassessment.

Texas GOP Attorney General: Middleton defeated Roy, 55.8% to 44.2% (469,864 to 372,289).

House Runoff Results (May 26):
• TX Dem District 14: Bartie 50.2% vs Davis 49.8% — razor-thin margin, recount possible.
• TX Dem District 18: Menefee won 68.6% to Green’s 31.4%.
• TX GOP District 19: Sell won 65.5% to Enriquez’s 34.5%.
• TX Dem District 33: Allred 54.9% vs Johnson 45.1%.
• TX GOP District 35: De La Cruz 54.5% vs Lujan 45.5%.
• TX Dem District 35: Garcia 59.2% vs Galindo 40.8%.

Full analysis →

Georgia GOP Governor: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (38.7%) and billionaire Rick Jackson (33.2%) advanced to June 16 runoff — Jackson won (see June 16 results above). Carr and Raffensperger eliminated. Over $100M in ad spending. Dem Governor: Keisha Lance Bottoms won outright at 57.5%.

Georgia GOP Senate: Rep. Mike Collins (41.2%) vs Derek Dooley (28.6%) — Collins won the June 16 runoff (see above). Trump gave last-minute endorsement.

GA-13: Former state Rep. Jasmine Clark won Dem primary at 58.7%.

Kentucky KY-04: Thomas Massie is out. Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein won 54.9% to 45.1% — the most expensive House primary in U.S. history ($32.6M).

Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) crushed Daniel Cameron 60.4% to 30.9%. Dem: Charles Booker won 46.8% to McGrath’s 35.8%.

Alabama Senate: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (40%) and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (26%) advanced to June 16 runoff — Moore won (see above). AG Steve Marshall eliminated (25%). Tuberville dominated the governor’s race (85.8%).

Full results & analysis →

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), a two-term incumbent, was knocked out of Louisiana’s May 16 primary — the last of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after Jan. 6 to face electoral consequences. Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow finished first but fell short of 50%; state Treasurer John Fleming advanced to a June 27 runoff. Cassidy finished third with ~25%. In his concession, Cassidy took a veiled swipe at Trump: “You don’t pout, you don’t whine. You don’t claim the election was stolen.” The seat remains Safe R regardless of which Republican wins the runoff.

Twelve states have now actively redrawn or are redrawing congressional maps mid-decade. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 due to redistricting in FL, VA, and TN — 11 of those moves favored Republicans. On May 13, Cook moved MO-05 from Safe D to Safe R after Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in the GOP gerrymander targeting Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.

Georgia — SCRAPPED. The legislature convened its special session on June 17 — the day after the runoffs — and immediately refused to redraw maps. House Speaker Jon Burns and Senate Pro Tem Larry Walker sent letters to Gov. Kemp declining to take up congressional or legislative redistricting, citing pending litigation in other states and the need for “ample opportunity” for public input. Protesters chanted “Black voters matter!” inside the Capitol. Kemp expressed disappointment but said the decision belongs to the legislature. The session pivoted to tax relief and ratifying the gas tax suspension. Georgia will use existing maps for 2026 — and potentially 2028 — unless the legislature reconvenes on the issue.

South Carolina — DEAD. On May 27, the SC Senate killed the Trump-backed redistricting bill. Twelve Republicans crossed party lines to block cloture, ending the effort to eliminate Rep. James Clyburn’s SC-06. The House had passed a 7-0 Republican map, but early voting for the June 9 primary had already begun on May 26, and several GOP senators said it was too late to change maps. Gov. McMaster expressed disappointment but the session is over. SC redistricting could be revisited for 2028, but it is dead for 2026.

Virginia — OVER. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency application on May 16, leaving the SCOVA ruling intact. The voter-approved redistricting amendment was struck down 4–3 by the Virginia Supreme Court on May 8, which held the General Assembly violated constitutional procedures. Virginia will use the existing 2021 court-drawn maps for 2026. Cook’s May 8 rating moves (VA-01 Likely D → Lean R, VA-02 Lean D → Toss-Up, VA-05 Likely D → Likely R, VA-06 Lean D → Safe R) remain in effect.

Florida’s new map (projected 24R-4D) is signed but still being litigated. SCOTUS gutted the VRA in Louisiana v. Callais (6-3, Apr 29). Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district into three. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting. Inside Elections moved NJ-07 and PA-10 from Tilt R to Toss-Up, VA-07 from Lean D to Likely D, and WA-03 from Tilt D to Toss-Up on May 21. GOP-led states now hold a ~17-seat redistricting advantage vs. ~6 for Democrats.

*Includes 1 Independent caucusing with GOP. 5 seats currently vacant (CA-01, CA-14, TX-23, FL-20, GA-13). The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025 — including a Michigan state Senate pickup on May 5. Generic ballot average: Dems +6 (FiftyPlusOne, May 23); Data for Progress (May 15–18) has Dems +8. As of May 2026, 56 House members have announced their retirement — 36 Republicans vs. 22 Democrats — the second-most House retirements in a single cycle since 1992. Including 14 Senate retirements, the total congressional departure count of 71 is the highest this century. Cook House summary (May 13): 184 Solid D, 188 Solid R, 23 Likely/Lean D, 22 Likely/Lean R. Polymarket gives Democrats an 81–83% chance of taking the House (Jun 18). Republicans have a 56% chance of holding the Senate.

Trump’s approval remains near second-term lows. Silver Bulletin net approval: −18.7 (Jun 18), rebounding slightly from an all-time second-term low of −21.2 in late May. June aggregate: ~38.6% approve, 58% disapprove. Among independents: ~34% approval — well below the 36% threshold that preceded Democrats’ 41-seat wave in 2018. Trump is underwater on all four major issues tracked by Silver Bulletin; net approval on the economy dropped below −30 for the first time this term. The Iran war (launched Feb 28) remains deeply unpopular — 65% disapprove of Trump’s handling. The fragile ceasefire continues to fracture: Iran struck Kuwait’s international airport on June 3, and the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island. Talks remain stalled. Gas prices have fallen sharply: $3.999/gal (AAA, June 18) — below $4 for the first time since March 30, down 55¢ from the May 21 peak of $4.55. Crude remains below $100/barrel. If the ceasefire holds, prices could continue falling; if it collapses, expect a spike. Five states (AK, HI, NV, OR, WA) still near $5/gal; California near $6. Generic ballot: Dems +6 (FiftyPlusOne, May 23); Dems +8 (Data for Progress, May 18); PBS/NPR/Marist has Dems +14, with independents preferring Democrats by 33 pts. Polymarket gives Democrats an 81–83% chance of winning the House (Jun 18); Republicans have a 56% chance of keeping the Senate. Full Dem sweep at ~40% (Kalshi).

Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) defeated four primary challengers. Cindy Burbank won the Dem nomination, but the Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed independent Dan Osborn for November. Osborn lost to Sen. Fischer by only 6 pts in 2024 in a state Trump won by 20+.

NE-02 (Open — Top Dem Target): Denise Powell (D) won a razor-thin primary over State Sen. John Cavanaugh (~2 pts). Powell, a political organizer and first Latina to file for federal office in Nebraska, will face Trump-endorsed Brinker Harding (R). The “blue dot” district voted for Harris in 2024 and Biden in 2020. The primary drew $5.6M in outside spending — the most expensive Dem primary in the district’s history.

West Virginia Senate: Shelley Moore Capito (R) fended off five primary challengers. Rachel Anderson won the Dem nomination. Safe R (Trump +39 in 2024).

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Husted (R) won their Senate primaries — setting up the cycle’s marquee Senate race. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and Amy Acton (D) won governor primaries. Derek Merrin (R) won OH-9 and will face Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D).

Indiana: Trump-backed challengers defeated 5 of 6 targeted GOP state senators who had blocked Trump’s redistricting push — a dramatic display of Trump’s grip on the party. Only Greg Goode (R) survived. Sen. Jim Banks declared it a “big night for MAGA.” The results may revive Indiana redistricting efforts ahead of November.

The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity is racing to collect 413,488 valid signatures by July 5, 2026 to place a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. The amendment would strip qualified immunity, sovereign immunity, and prosecutorial immunity from government officials who violate Ohioans’ constitutional rights. AG Dave Yost blocked the petition eight times before the U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way in April 2025. If certified, Ohio would be the first state to end qualified immunity by popular vote. National polling shows 63% support for ending QI (Cato/YouGov); an Ohio-specific Campaign Zero poll found 53% support elimination outright and 87% believe officers should face consequences for rights violations. Full analysis →

Democrat Chedrick Greene won the Michigan state Senate District 35 special election, giving Democrats another overperformance data point. The win keeps Dems in control of the Michigan state Senate — a critical backstop heading into a gubernatorial transition year.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) died January 6. R+17 district — safe Republican hold. Special election set for August 4, with the primary on June 2. One of five current House vacancies reducing the GOP’s functional majority margin.

Rep. David Scott (D), the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, died at age 80 after 23 years in Congress. Special election date still TBD. May 19 primary (final): Former state Rep. Jasmine Clark won the Dem primary for the full term at 58.7%, well ahead of state Sen. Emanuel Jones (7.8%). D+26 district — safe Democratic hold.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Abbott has still not called a special election — now over 9 weeks after the vacancy. Texas law gives the governor broad discretion; Abbott is under no deadline. The next uniform election date under Texas law is November 3. Dem Katy Padilla Stout has demanded he act immediately. The likely matchup is Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera (YouTuber/gun manufacturer). R+7 district under new maps, but Dem special election overperformances make this competitive. The delay benefits the GOP by preserving their slim House majority margin.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned the same day as Gonzales, also facing sexual misconduct allegations and a pending expulsion vote. D+20 district — safe Democratic hold. June 16 top-two primary completed. Wahab (D) and Hernandez advanced. Special election set for August 18.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21, minutes before the House Ethics Committee was set to recommend expulsion. Found guilty of 25 ethics violations; faces a 15-count federal indictment for allegedly stealing $5M in FEMA disaster relief. D+12 district — safe Democratic hold. Gov. DeSantis to call special election.

Democrat Analilia Mejia won the NJ-11 special election on April 16, filling the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Progressive platform (abolish ICE, universal health care). Mejia faces a June primary for the full term.

The Supreme Court (6-3) struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling could put at least 15 House seats held by Black members at risk nationwide. Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority rendered Section 2 “all but a dead letter.” The cascade: Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district (May 7). Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in its gerrymander; Cook moved MO-05 Safe D → Safe R (May 13). The SC House passed a 7-0 R map targeting Rep. Clyburn, but on May 27 the SC Senate killed the bill — 12 Republicans crossed party lines, citing early voting already underway. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency appeal on May 16, ending their bid to use new Dem-drawn maps in 2026. On June 2, SCOTUS allowed Alabama to use its new GOP-friendly congressional map that eliminated a majority-Black district, dealing another blow to VRA protections. Alabama’s May 19 primary was the first election under the post-Callais redrawn map. Georgia’s legislature scrapped planned redistricting on June 17 — House Speaker Burns and Senate Pro Tem Walker refused to redraw maps during a special session, citing pending litigation. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 — 11 favoring Republicans. Inside Elections moved NJ-07, PA-10, VA-07, and WA-03 on May 21.

The Iran war, gas prices ($3.99/gal, down sharply from the $4.55 peak), and Trump’s near-record-low approval are dominating political ad spending. The Texas Senate primary alone consumed $125M+ (AdImpact) — the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. The Georgia governor’s race saw $100M+ in primary ad spending — third-most expensive gubernatorial primary on record. GOP candidates in competitive districts continue to run on Trump alignment, while Democrats lean into economic pain and war opposition.