2026 Midterm Elections

Nine states have now redrawn congressional maps mid-decade. Tennessee became the 9th on May 7 when Gov. Lee signed a map carving up the state's lone majority-Black district (Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis-based seat) into three GOP-leaning districts, targeting a 9-0 Republican delegation. The map passed amid protests and walkouts; the NAACP has filed an emergency petition to block it. Florida became the 8th on April 29 via DeSantis's map (24R-4D). Hours earlier, SCOTUS gutted the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais (6-3). In Virginia, the Supreme Court denied AG Jay Jones's redistricting referendum — maps remain blocked. Next up: Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting; Alabama is also moving to redraw maps. GOP-led states now hold a ~14-seat redistricting advantage vs. ~10 for Democrats.

*Includes 1 Independent caucusing with GOP. 5 seats currently vacant (CA-01, CA-14, TX-23, FL-20, GA-13). The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025 — including a Michigan state Senate pickup on May 5. Generic ballot: Dems +10 (April 29 poll).

Trump is at record-low approval ratings heading into midterms. The Iran war (launched Feb 28) remains deeply unpopular. Gas prices averaging $4.23/gal nationally are the most direct channel transmitting war costs to voters. Generic ballot polling shows Democrats +10 (April 29). The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democratic enthusiasm leads Republican enthusiasm in recent surveys, mirroring the 2018 and 2006 wave patterns.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Husted (R) won their Senate primaries — setting up the cycle's marquee Senate race. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and Amy Acton (D) won governor primaries. Derek Merrin (R) won OH-9 and will face Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D).

Indiana: Trump-backed challengers defeated 5 of 6 targeted GOP state senators who had blocked Trump's redistricting push — a dramatic display of Trump's grip on the party. Only Greg Goode (R) survived. Sen. Jim Banks declared it a "big night for MAGA." The results may revive Indiana redistricting efforts ahead of November.

Democrat Chedrick Greene won the Michigan state Senate District 35 special election, giving Democrats another overperformance data point. The win keeps Dems in control of the Michigan state Senate — a critical backstop heading into a gubernatorial transition year.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) resigned his northern California seat. R+17 district — safe Republican hold. Gov. Newsom to set special election date. One of five current House vacancies reducing the GOP's functional majority margin.

Rep. David Scott (D), the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, died at age 80 after 23 years in Congress. Gov. Kemp set the special election for July 28 (runoff Aug 25 if needed). Candidate qualifying runs May 11–13 (fee: $5,220). Marcye Scott (David Scott's daughter), state Sen. Emanuel Jones, former state Rep. Jasmine Clark, and Everton Blair are all running. D+26 district — safe Democratic hold. The May 19 primary for the full term proceeds separately; Scott's name remains on the ballot but votes for him will not count.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Abbott has still not called a special election — now 3+ weeks after the vacancy. Texas law gives the governor broad discretion; Abbott is under no deadline. Dem Katy Padilla Stout has demanded he act immediately. The likely matchup is Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera (YouTuber/gun manufacturer). R+7 district under new maps, but Dem special election overperformances make this competitive. The delay benefits the GOP by preserving their slim House majority margin.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned the same day as Gonzales, also facing sexual misconduct allegations and a pending expulsion vote. D+20 district — safe Democratic hold. Gov. Newsom set special election for August 18.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21, minutes before the House Ethics Committee was set to recommend expulsion. Found guilty of 25 ethics violations; faces a 15-count federal indictment for allegedly stealing $5M in FEMA disaster relief. D+12 district — safe Democratic hold. Gov. DeSantis to call special election.

Democrat Analilia Mejia won the NJ-11 special election on April 16, filling the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Progressive platform (abolish ICE, universal health care). Mejia faces a June primary for the full term.

The Supreme Court (6-3) struck down Louisiana's majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling could put at least 15 House seats held by Black members at risk nationwide. Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority rendered Section 2 "all but a dead letter." Florida cited the ruling hours later to justify its new maps. Tennessee became the first state to act post-Callais, signing a map on May 7 that splits Rep. Steve Cohen's majority-Black Memphis district into three. The NAACP filed an emergency petition. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting; Alabama is also moving to redraw maps.

As of mid-April, GOP candidates in competitive districts have spent most heavily on ads mentioning Trump — signaling the president's role as a primary issue heading into the summer. The Iran war, rising gas prices ($4.23/gal avg.), and Trump's record-low approval are emerging as top voter concerns.