2026 Midterm Elections

South Carolina Senate special — runoff. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham led the ten-candidate field with roughly 33%, short of the majority needed to win outright. Rep. Ralph Norman finished second at about 24%, edging Rep. Russell Fry (~20%). Former Gov. Mark Sanford took about 15% and is eliminated — he was the only major candidate in the field not aligned with the MAGA movement. Graham and Norman meet in an August 25 runoff; the winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

Minnesota — the progressive wave continues. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated Rep. Angie Craig for the Democratic nomination for Tina Smith’s open Senate seat, roughly 59%–40% with most of the vote counted. It is the second straight cycle week in which a progressive beat an establishment-backed member of Congress in a Senate primary, after Abdul El-Sayed’s win in Michigan. On the Republican side, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya won the nomination over state party-endorsed former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and 2024 nominee Royce White. General: Flanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R).

Minnesota Governor — a new open race. With Gov. Tim Walz retiring, Sen. Amy Klobuchar won the Democratic primary. Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth won the Republican primary with about 45%, ahead of Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell (~31%) and party-endorsed Kendall Qualls (~21%). Lindell’s loss is another dent in Trump’s primary endorsement record. General: Klobuchar (D) vs. Demuth (R).

Wisconsin Governor — a photo finish, and a check on the progressive run. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes — 0.4 points — with 99% of ballots counted. An absentee-ballot upload error in Milwaukee delayed reporting past midnight and both watch parties broke up with no winner declared; the AP called it at 2:34 a.m. after Hong conceded, which foreclosed the recount she would otherwise have been entitled to request under Wisconsin’s 1% threshold. Crowley would be Wisconsin’s first Black governor. Notably, Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — who backed the winners in Michigan and Minnesota — sat this one out and endorsed nobody. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R, Trump-endorsed) won the Republican nomination comfortably.

Connecticut — the incumbent held, the congressman didn’t. Gov. Ned Lamont turned back state Rep. Josh Elliott’s challenge from the left 68%–32%, carrying all but three towns including Elliott’s home of Hamden. It was the first primary challenge to a sitting Connecticut governor in 48 years, and the AP called it shortly after polls closed. Lamont faces Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio in November.

In CT-01, former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated 14-term Rep. John Larson about 53.5%–34.7%, running explicitly on generational change after already beating Larson for the party endorsement in May. The district is safely Democratic, so the primary decides the seat.

Alabama — the new map’s first test. Primaries in several districts had been pushed from May to August to accommodate the redrawn congressional map, and these special primaries required no majority to avoid a runoff. In AL-02 — redrawn roughly 22 points to the right and now the GOP’s top target against freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D) — Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques was the projected winner of a six-candidate field. Former Rep. Jerry Carl was the projected winner in AL-01.

Vermont voted for governor, lieutenant governor, and its at-large House seat, with Republican Gov. Phil Scott seeking a sixth two-year term.

Sen. Darline Graham — appointed to the seat by Gov. Henry McMaster three days after her brother Lindsey Graham’s death from a torn aorta on July 11 — finished first but could not clear 50% against a field of ten, forcing a head-to-head runoff on August 25.

This is now a direct test of Trump’s endorsement. Trump backed Graham and said Tuesday night that he plans to campaign for her in the runoff. Ralph Norman, who placed third in June’s governor primary before pivoting to this race, said he had wanted the endorsement but that South Carolina voters will decide the seat, and has agreed to debate Graham before the runoff.

The eliminated vote is the whole game: Fry’s ~20% and Sanford’s ~15% are up for grabs in a two-week sprint. Roughly 61,000 Republicans voted early over three days last week. The nominee faces Charleston pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who won her primary outright in June. Rated Likely R.

The closest statewide result of the cycle. David Crowley beat Francesca Hong by roughly 3,200 votes out of some 700,000 — four-tenths of a point with 99% counted. An absentee-ballot upload error in Milwaukee delayed reporting; both watch parties ended after midnight with no call. Hong conceded in the early hours, and the AP declared Crowley the winner at 2:34 a.m. — the concession removed the recount she could have requested under Wisconsin’s 1% rule, though at a margin above 0.25% her campaign would have had to pay for it.

Why it matters beyond Wisconsin. Hong led public polling for most of the closing stretch and would have been the highest-profile democratic socialist nominee of the cycle. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, who backed the winners in Michigan and Minnesota, declined to endorse here — a sign the national progressive movement is not uniformly aligned. Crowley, who had dropped out in July and re-entered days later with Gov. Evers’ endorsement after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez’s campaign collapsed, pitched himself as the candidate best positioned to win in November. He would be Wisconsin’s first Black governor.

Tiffany, endorsed by Trump, will run against “Madison socialism” regardless of which Democrat he drew. Trump carried Wisconsin by under a point in 2024. Toss-Up.

Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated Rep. John Larson, who was seeking a 15th term, by nearly 19 points. Bronin had signaled the seriousness of the challenge by beating Larson for the state party endorsement at the May convention, and called the result a political earthquake. Larson, 78, had faced questions about his health since a 2025 incident on the House floor that he later attributed to a treatable heart condition.

The pattern: Larson is the third House incumbent ousted in a primary this cycle, after Thomas Massie (KY-04) and Shri Thanedar (MI-13) — and the second in eight days to lose on a generational-change argument. CT-01 gave Larson 63% in 2024, so the primary effectively decides the seat.

The contrast on the same ballot: Gov. Ned Lamont beat his own challenger from the left, state Rep. Josh Elliott, 68%–32% — winning all but three towns, including Elliott’s home of Hamden. It was the first primary challenge to a sitting Connecticut governor in 48 years, and Lamont was never seriously threatened. Connecticut Democrats retired a 78-year-old congressman and renominated a 72-year-old governor on the same night, which suggests the vote was about tenure and performance rather than ideology.

Hawaii held its primary on Saturday, August 8. Gov. Josh Green (D) took about 81% in a four-way primary and is a heavy favorite for a second term in a state Republicans have not won since 2006.

In HI-01, moderate Rep. Ed Case turned back a challenge from progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, roughly 57%–34% — one of the few places this month where the establishment candidate held. Rep. Jill Tokuda won renomination in HI-02 with about 83%. Derek Kawakami won the separate Democratic primary for lieutenant governor.

More than 280,000 ballots were counted, with turnout around 33%. Several legislative races remained within recount range after the weekend printouts.

The Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who organize with Democrats. The House has 431 seated members: 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one Independent, and four vacancies in CA-14, TX-23, FL-20, and GA-13. CA-14 is filled by the August 18 special election and GA-13 by the August 25 runoff; TX-23 and FL-20 still have no scheduled date.

A Cleveland-area Republican seat that was not on anyone’s battleground list in July is now a Democratic target. Rep. Max Miller is the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation opened August 4 — at his own request — into whether he may have engaged in domestic violence and abuse or illegal drug use. The allegations, made by his former wife in divorce and custody filings, are contested and unadjudicated; Miller denies them.

The political facts are not in dispute. Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, Miller’s former father-in-law, publicly said Miller should not serve in the House. Republican resignation calls followed. Senate Majority Leader Thune declined to weigh in, calling it a family matter.

The mechanical problem: Ohio law requires the nominee to withdraw before county party chairs can name a replacement. Miller refused, the August 10 deadline passed, and Republicans have no way to remove him from the November ballot. Senior GOP House strategists consider the seat lost; his opponent, union ironworker Brian Poindexter, is fundraising on it.

August 18 — : Alaska’s top-four primary and Florida’s primaries, plus the CA-14 special election (Wahab vs. Hernandez) that fills the Swalwell vacancy.
August 25 — : South Carolina Republican Senate runoff (Darline Graham vs. Ralph Norman); GA-13 special runoff (Scott vs. Blair); Oklahoma Democratic Senate runoff (Thomas vs. Priest).
September 8 — : New Hampshire primary, the last competitive Senate nomination on the board.
November 3 — : Election Day.

Still unscheduled: special elections in TX-23 and FL-20.

Michigan Senate. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary despite an 8-to-1 spending disadvantage and opposition from the party establishment. Mike Rogers had the Republican nomination locked up after early consolidation. General: El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R) — a Toss-Up and one of the handful of seats deciding Senate control.

Michigan Governor: Trump-endorsed Rep. John James won the GOP primary over Perry Johnson; Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson won the Democratic nomination. Independent Mike Duggan waits in November.

Michigan’s progressive wave. In MI-13, state Rep. Donavan McKinney ousted incumbent Shri Thanedar by roughly 4 points. In MI-07, organizer Will Lawrence beat two establishment-backed candidates and faces Rep. Tom Barrett (R). MI-10 and MI-11 are open seats.

Kansas Supreme Court amendment — REJECTED roughly 62%–38%. Republicans placed the measure on a low-turnout primary ballot, the same gambit that failed on abortion rights in 2022. Kansas Governor: Senate President Ty Masterson (R) vs. state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D). Kansas Senate: pastor Adam Hamilton won an 11-candidate Democratic primary after raising $3.66M in two months; he faces Sen. Roger Marshall.

Missouri: Amendment 4 (district-by-district approval for initiatives) was crushed ~80% No; Amendment 5 (income tax for sales tax) rejected ~83% No. MO-01: Rep. Wesley Bell beat former Rep. Cori Bush again, 59%–37%. MO-05: state Sen. Rick Brattin (R) faces Rep. Emanuel Cleaver under the new gerrymander.

Virginia Senate: retired Maj. Gen. Bert Mizusawa (R) faces Sen. Mark Warner. Safe D.

Washington: in WA-03, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and John Braun (R) advanced separated by just 263 votes. In WA-04, Amanda McKinney (R) and John Duresky (D) advanced.

South Dakota Governor (R) runoff: Gov. Larry Rhoden routed Toby Doeden 71%–29%, winning 64 of 66 counties in the state’s first gubernatorial runoff. He faces Democrat Dan Ahlers on November 3. Safe R.

GA-13 special: no candidate cleared 50%. Marcye Scott (46.8%) and Everton Blair (36.7%) — both Democrats — advance to the August 25 runoff on turnout under 20,000. The seat stays vacant until the winner is sworn in, and that winner serves only until January, when state Rep. Jasmine Clark takes over after winning the May primary for the full term.

SC Senate filing: twelve Republicans filed by the noon deadline; the SCGOP decertified three under a rule adopted July 1 requiring a recent record of voting in GOP statewide primaries. Ten names appeared on the August 11 ballot.

July 21: Andy Biggs won the Republican governor nomination with roughly 74% and will face Katie Hobbs. In the open AZ-01 battleground, Amish Shah won the Democratic primary and will face Republican Jay Feely. Mark Lamb won the Republican nomination in AZ-05. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes certified the statewide results on August 6 — every matchup is final.

Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee. Delegates from Maine’s 16 counties met in Bangor on July 25 and selected the former state Senate president 566 to 5 over Saundra Pelletier. David Costello and Dan Kleban had suspended their campaigns the week before after Jackson’s supporters swept the county delegate meetings.

Jackson replaces Graham Platner, who won the June 9 primary with 77.7% and withdrew July 8 following a sexual assault allegation he denies. The party met its July 27 statutory deadline to file the replacement.

General: Jackson (D) vs. Sen. Susan Collins (R) — a three-month sprint in a state Harris won by roughly seven points, and one of the few realistic Democratic pickups on the map.

Five sitting members of Congress have now lost renomination this cycle — and the causes split cleanly by party.

Republicans lost to Trump. Sen. John Cornyn fell to Ken Paxton 62.8%–37.2% after Trump’s endorsement. Sen. Bill Cassidy was knocked out of Louisiana’s May 16 primary, completing the sweep of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict after Jan. 6. Rep. Thomas Massie lost KY-04 to Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein in the most expensive House primary in U.S. history.

Democrats lost to their left, and to the calendar. Rep. Shri Thanedar lost MI-13 to Sanders-backed Donavan McKinney on August 4. Rep. John Larson lost CT-01 on August 11 to a challenger running on generational change. Add the Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota, where establishment-backed House members lost to progressives in open-seat races.

But the pattern has a hard limit: statewide incumbents are holding. No sitting governor has lost a primary in 2026. Ned Lamont beat a challenge from his left 68–32 on the same night Larson fell. In Wisconsin’s open governor primary, the establishment candidate edged the democratic socialist by four-tenths of a point — with Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez declining to endorse. The insurgent wins have come almost entirely in open seats and House districts, not against incumbents with statewide records to run on.

Georgia Governor (R) runoff: billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson narrowly defeated Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. General: Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

Georgia Senate (R) runoff: Rep. Mike Collins won handily over Derek Dooley. General: Collins (R) vs. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) — Cook rates it Lean D.

Georgia redistricting — SCRAPPED. The legislature convened June 17 and both chambers immediately refused to redraw maps. Georgia uses existing maps for 2026 and 2028.

Alabama Senate (R) runoff: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore defeated Jared Hudson. Safe R.

Oklahoma Senate: Rep. Kevin Hern won the GOP primary with 67.6%. Democratic runoff Thomas vs. Priest on August 25. Safe R.

CA-14 special primary: Wahab (D) and Hernandez advanced in the D+20 district.

Maine Senate: Graham Platner (D) won 77.7% and withdrew July 8; Maine Democrats replaced him with Troy Jackson at the July 25 convention.

Maine Governor (RCV): Hannah Pingree won the Democratic nomination on June 19 on ranked-choice transfers; Bobby Charles won the GOP tabulation with 60%. General: Pingree (D) vs. Charles (R) vs. Bennett (I).

South Carolina Governor: Evette and Wilson advanced; Wilson won the June 23 runoff roughly two-to-one after consolidating the eliminated field.

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham won the June 9 primary but died July 11. Darline Graham was appointed and now faces Ralph Norman in the August 25 special runoff.

Nevada: AG Aaron Ford (D) was uncontested. General: Ford vs. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R).

Iowa Senate: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) cruised; Paralympian state Rep. Josh Turek (D) defeated Zach Wahls 62.6%–37.4%.

Iowa Governor: Zach Lahn (R) edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Feenstra by under a point and faces Dem Auditor Rob Sand.

Montana Senate: Trump-endorsed Kurt Alme (R) took 76.2%; Alani Bankhead (D) won despite GOP super PAC interference.

California Governor: Steve Hilton (R) and Xavier Becerra (D) advanced from the top-two primary.

NJ-07: Rebecca Bennett (D) won 46% and faces Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R), absent from Congress since March.

New Mexico Governor: Deb Haaland (D) could become the first Native American woman governor; she faces Gregg Hull (R).

Ken Paxton crushed four-term incumbent John Cornyn, 62.8% to 37.2% — a 25.6-point blowout that exceeded every public poll after Trump’s May 19 endorsement. Paxton faces Democratic nominee James Talarico in November, and July NYT/Siena polling had the general tied 47–47.

Full analysis →

Kentucky KY-04: Thomas Massie is out. Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein won 54.9%–45.1% in the most expensive House primary in U.S. history ($32.6M).

Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) beat Daniel Cameron 60.4%–30.9%; Charles Booker won the Democratic primary with 46.8%.

Georgia: the governor and Senate races went to June 16 runoffs after $100M in primary ad spending.

Full results & analysis →

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) was knocked out of Louisiana’s May 16 primary — the last of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after Jan. 6 to face electoral consequences.

June 27 runoff: Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow defeated state Treasurer John Fleming 56.9%–43.1%. Safe R.

Twelve states have actively redrawn or are redrawing congressional maps mid-decade. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 because of FL, VA, and TN — 11 of those moves favored Republicans. On May 13, Cook moved MO-05 from Safe D to Safe R after Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in the gerrymander targeting Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.

Alabama — first vote under the new map, August 11. Several districts had their primaries pushed from May to accommodate the redraw, and no majority was required to avoid a runoff. AL-02 shifted roughly 22 points right, making freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D) the GOP’s marquee House target; Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques was the projected winner of the six-candidate Republican field.

Missouri and Virginia held their first primaries under final maps on August 4. In MO-05, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R) will challenge Cleaver in November — the first real test of whether the gerrymander holds.

Georgia — SCRAPPED (June 17). South Carolina — DEAD (May 27, twelve Republicans crossed party lines). Virginia — OVER (SCOTUS rejected the Democrats’ emergency application May 16).

Florida’s new map is signed but litigated. SCOTUS gutted Section 2 of the VRA in Louisiana v. Callais (6-3, Apr 29). Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district. GOP-led states hold a ~17-seat redistricting advantage vs. ~6 for Democrats.

The House has 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 1 Independent who caucuses with Republicans, and 4 vacancies. With 431 seated members, 216 votes currently form a majority. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025. Generic ballot polling in the second half of July ranged from D+3 to D+11. As of May 2026, 56 House members had announced retirement — 36 Republicans vs. 22 Democrats. Cook House summary (May 13): 184 Solid D, 188 Solid R, 23 Likely/Lean D, 22 Likely/Lean R. Polymarket traders gave Democrats an 81–83% chance of taking the House and Republicans a 56% chance of holding the Senate as of mid-June.

Trump’s approval has settled below 40% across a string of late-July surveys. CBS News/YouGov (Jul 21–24) put him at 39% approve, 61% disapprove; Emerson (Jul 19–20) had 39/57; the RealClearPolitics average stood at 41.1/57.2 on July 24 — a net rating of roughly −18 to −22, near his second-term low. Among independents, approval remains in the low-to-mid 30s.

A newer soft spot: approval of U.S. military action against Iran has fallen to 39%, down from 44% in March (CBS/YouGov), with a plurality expecting the conflict to run for months.

Gas keeps easing. The AAA national average was $4.01 on August 11, down from $4.12 on July 30 and $4.08 a week ago — the national average has slipped for two straight weeks as the summer driving season winds down. Prices are still up sharply year over year: every state was higher than in August 2025, with Michigan and Arizona up nearly 39%. California remains the most expensive state at around $5.60, while Texas, Indiana, and Mississippi sit near $3.60. The EIA projects a 2026 average of $3.64 falling to $3.09 in 2027. Cost of living remains the administration’s weakest issue, but the trend line is finally moving its way.

Generic ballot polling has spread unusually wide: Ipsos/Washington Post D+3 (48–45), CNBC/Hart D+4 (49–45), the FiftyPlusOne aggregate D+5 (49.2–43.9), and Emerson D+11 (53–42). Emerson is the clear outlier; the cluster sits around D+3 to D+5.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned in April. D+20 district — a safe Democratic hold. Wahab (D) and Hernandez advanced from the June 16 top-two primary. The special election is August 18, , and will cut the House vacancy count to three.

Marcye Scott (46.8%) and Everton Blair (36.7%) advance to the August 25 runoff. The seat stays vacant until the winner is sworn in, and that member serves only until January. For the full term: state Rep. Jasmine Clark won the May 19 Democratic primary at 58.7% — a safe hold.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Abbott has still not called a special election — after the vacancy. Texas law gives the governor broad discretion and sets no deadline. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout has demanded he act; the likely matchup is Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera in an R+7 district. The delay preserves the GOP’s slim working majority.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21 — ago. D+12 district and a safe Democratic hold whenever Gov. DeSantis calls the election.

The Supreme Court (6-3) struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority left Section 2 all but a dead letter. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 — 11 favoring Republicans. Inside Elections moved NJ-07, PA-10, VA-07, and WA-03 on May 21. Alabama’s cleared map produced its first primaries on August 11.

The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity needed 413,488 valid signatures by July 1, 2026. As of mid-July no submission had been publicly reported, so the amendment appears unlikely to reach voters this November; the effort could target a future ballot. National polling shows 63% support for ending qualified immunity (Cato/YouGov). Full analysis →

Democrat Analilia Mejia won NJ-11 on April 16 and is also seeking the full term. Republican James Gallagher held CA-01 and was sworn in June 10. Democrat Chedrick Greene won Michigan’s state Senate District 35 on May 5, keeping Democratic control of that chamber. Democrats have overperformed their 2024 presidential margins in every special election since January 2025 — the single most reliable indicator on this page.

The Iran war, gas prices, and Trump’s sub-40% approval dominate political advertising. The Texas Senate primary consumed $125M+ (AdImpact) — the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. Expect South Carolina spending to spike through August 25 as Trump campaigns in the runoff.