And then there were …
Democrats take both chambers in January. Who in Trump's orbit falls first, and when? Our forecasts were locked on November 4, 2026. Below, they're scored against live prediction markets and the cosponsor counts on every impeachment resolution in Congress.
The guest list
Ordered by our call. Pick anyone to open their dossier: live market odds, impeachment resolutions, cosponsor momentum, and the latest headlines.
Model vs market
Every call was locked with a date and a probability. When an event resolves, both our number and the market's number at lock get a Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip, lower is better). The gap badge compares our call to the market today.
| Question | Our call | Market at lock | Market now | Gap now | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading forecasts… | |||||
Leadership signals
What the people who control the floor are actually saying, dated and sourced. Cosponsor counts tell you who's on board. These tell you whether leadership will let a vote happen.
How this works, and what it can't tell you
Our locked calls (Nov 4, 2026)
- Pete Hegseth goes first, between the Nov 9 lame duck and February 2027. Resigning and being impeached are a near coin flip.
- RFK Jr. is the likeliest second target, around mid-2027.
- Kash Patel is next, though markets lean toward him leaving before the House acts.
- Donald Trump: a House impeachment is more likely than not by 2028 (blended call about 60%). Removal stays under 10%.
- Linda McMahon and Howard Lutnick are long shots that likely run out the clock.
Median outcome: two cabinet-level impeachments in the 120th Congress, and almost no new efforts after summer 2028.
Sources and honest limits
- Markets: Kalshi public market data, refreshed hourly. Prices are crowd odds, not facts, and long-dated political contracts can drift toward what traders hope for.
- Congress: Congress.gov resolutions whose title begins "Impeaching", with sponsor, cosponsor count and latest action, refreshed every six hours. "Adopted" status is auto-detected and should be verified on Congress.gov.
- Our calls: structured scenario reasoning over public reporting, adjusted after a market check. It isn't a statistical model. Only two cabinet secretaries have ever been impeached (1876 and 2024), so there's no real base rate to calibrate against. That's exactly why we score ourselves in public.
- Headlines: Google News, past seven days, linked to the original publishers.