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Alaska Senate · Toss-Up (Cook) · Leans D (Sabato)

Peltola vs. Sullivan: Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Senate Race in the Final Stretch

Former Rep. Mary Peltola won the August top-four primary by eight points and leads two new polls by one and two. Alaska’s ranked-choice count means the winner may not be known for two weeks.

Published October 22, 2026·3 min read·Senate·Election Day is November 3

Election Night · Explainer · Updated Oct. 28

When Will We Know Who Won? 2026 Counting Timelines, State by State

Florida, Ohio and Texas usually report most of their vote on election night. Alaska won’t run its ranked-choice count until November 18, and Maine is telling voters to expect its Senate result the week after the election. Here is when each key state can realistically finish, and why.

Published October 28, 2026 · 12 min read · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3

Key takeaways

  • Fast states: Florida, Ohio, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire and Minnesota usually report most of their vote on election night.
  • Overnight states: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t touch mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, so their counts often run into Wednesday.
  • Ranked-choice states: Alaska’s election-night numbers are first choices only. Its ranked-choice count runs Nov. 18. Maine’s Senate race goes to a ranked-choice count in Augusta if no one clears 50%.
  • Mail ballots arriving late: California (Nov. 10), Nevada (Nov. 7), Mississippi (Nov. 10) and Kansas (Nov. 6) count mail ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and arrive afterward. Close races there can’t be called until those ballots are in.
  • Recent history: in 2022 and 2024, House control wasn’t called until 8 days after the election.
The short answer

Senate control could be clear by Wednesday morning, but only if it’s settled in the fast-counting states. As of Oct. 28, Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as Toss-Ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Four of them (Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Texas) normally finish within about a day. If the majority comes down to Alaska, it may not be known until the ranked-choice count on Nov. 18. If it comes down to Maine and no one reaches 50%, it would come the week after the election. The House almost always takes longer, because many competitive seats are in California and other states that count for days or weeks.

The counting calendar

These are the dates that set the pace. The dates come from state election offices and the sources listed at the bottom; all times are local unless noted.

  1. Tue, Nov. 3 · 6 p.m. ET onwardPolls start closing. Fast-count states report early and mail ballots first.Florida must post its counted early and mail votes within 30 minutes of polls closing. Georgia counties must report early and absentee results by 8 p.m.
  2. Wed, Nov. 4Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin usually finish most of their counts.Texas also accepts mail ballots postmarked by Election Day until 5 p.m. today.
  3. Fri, Nov. 6Kansas’s three-day window for mail ballots closes. Maricopa County hopes to have about 99% of its ballots counted.The Kansas grace period survived because a court blocked the 2025 law that would have ended it.
  4. Sat, Nov. 7 · 5 p.m.Nevada’s last day for postmarked mail ballots to arrive.Voters can fix signature problems until 5 p.m. Nov. 9.
  5. Week of Nov. 9Maine’s ranked-choice count, if one is needed.Ballots and memory devices are brought to a central site in Augusta. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows has told voters to expect results the week after the election.
  6. Tue, Nov. 10Last day for postmarked mail ballots to arrive in California, Oregon and Mississippi. Alaska starts counting absentee ballots.Close House races in California often stay uncalled for weeks after this.
  7. Fri, Nov. 13Last day for Alaska absentee ballots mailed within the U.S. to arrive.Overseas ballots have until Nov. 18.
  8. Wed, Nov. 18Alaska runs its ranked-choice count for Senate, governor and House.Until then, every Alaska result shows first choices only. Certification is targeted for Nov. 25.
  9. Dec. 1 to Dec. 12Runoffs, if any: Georgia on Dec. 1, Louisiana’s U.S. House races on Dec. 12.A Georgia runoff happens only if no one tops 50%, which is unlikely this year because no Libertarians qualified. California counties certify by Dec. 3.

State-by-state: the races to watch and when to expect them

“Expect” describes what has usually happened in recent elections, not a forecast. A very close race can take longer anywhere.

Election night Overnight to days Days to weeks Ranked choice
StateMail ballots must arrive byEarly ballot processingExpect
AlaskaSenate, governor, HousePostmarked by Nov. 3; arrive by Nov. 13 (Nov. 18 from overseas)Review boards started Oct. 28. Election-night totals are first choices only.Nov. 18 ranked-choice count
ArizonaGovernor, AZ-01, AZ-067 p.m. Nov. 3 (no grace period)Can count once envelopes are verified. A new 2026 option lets Election Day drop-off voters show ID so their ballots count that night.Days Maricopa aims for about 99% by Nov. 6
CaliforniaHouse battlegroundsPostmarked by Nov. 3; arrive by Nov. 10Counties can start processing when ballots are mailed. No results before 8 p.m.Weeks for close House seats
FloridaSenate, governor7 p.m. Nov. 3Yes. Counted early and mail votes must post within 30 minutes of polls closing.Election night
GeorgiaSenate, governorClose of polls Nov. 3Yes. Counties must report early and absentee results by 8 p.m.Election night runoff Dec. 1 only if no majority
IowaSenate, governor8 p.m. CT Nov. 3Counting starts on Election Day, or the day before if the county auditor choosesElection night unless very close
KansasSenatePostmarked by Nov. 3; arrive within 3 days (Nov. 6) under a court orderBallots are processed as they arriveNight to Nov. 6+ if close
MaineSenate and ME-02 (ranked choice), governor (plurality)8 p.m. Nov. 3Ranked-choice count happens in Augusta only if no one tops 50%Week after if a ranked-choice count is needed
MichiganSenate, governor8 p.m. Nov. 3Yes. Places with more than 5,000 residents can count up to 8 days early.Overnight to Wed.
MinnesotaSenate8 p.m. Nov. 3Yes, up to 19 days early. Most counties report absentees first.Election night
MississippiSenatePostmarked by Nov. 3; arrive by Nov. 10Processing starts 7 a.m. Election Day; counting starts 7 p.m.Night to Nov. 10 if close
NevadaGovernorPostmarked by Nov. 3; arrive by 5 p.m. Nov. 7Yes. Washoe County began Oct. 9.Days
New HampshireSenate5 p.m. Nov. 3Starts at 1 p.m. on Election DayElection night
North CarolinaSenate7:30 p.m. Nov. 3Yes. Counted weekly starting five Tuesdays before the election.Election night
OhioSenate, governor7:30 p.m. Nov. 3 (the 4-day grace period ended in 2025)Yes, from the day after registration closesElection night
Oregon / WashingtonHouse seatsOregon: arrive by Nov. 10. Washington: postmarked by Nov. 3; arrive before counties certify (Nov. 24).Ballots are processed as they arriveDays
PennsylvaniaPA-07, PA-08, PA-108 p.m. Nov. 3No. Not before 7 a.m. on Election Day.Overnight to Wed.
TexasSenatePostmarked by 7 p.m. Nov. 3; arrive by 5 p.m. Nov. 4Counties of 100,000+ can start 4 days earlyElection night
WisconsinGovernor8 p.m. Nov. 3No. Not before 7 a.m. on Election Day.Late night Milwaukee reports absentees in one batch

Ballots from military and overseas voters follow separate federal rules and can arrive later than the dates above. Washington ballots count as long as they’re postmarked by Election Day and arrive before the county certifies.

Why some states are slow

When they can start. Most states let officials verify and scan mail ballots before Election Day, so those votes are ready to report when polls close. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don’t allow that until 7 a.m. on Election Day, so workers spend the day opening envelopes while also running the polls. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee counts all its absentee ballots in one central location and uploads them together late at night, which can swing the statewide numbers at once. That jump is how the system works, not a sign of a problem.

Late-arriving ballots. The Supreme Court ruled 5–4 on June 29 in Watson v. RNC that federal law doesn’t set a deadline for ballots to arrive. That leaves it to each state. California, Nevada, Mississippi, Kansas, Alaska, Oregon, Washington and Texas all count ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive afterward, each with its own window. In a close race, nobody can responsibly call it until those ballots are in. Every state’s deadline is here.

Signature fixes. Many states give voters a few days to fix a missing or mismatched signature. Nevada’s deadline is Nov. 9 and California’s is Nov. 25. Those ballots aren’t final until the window closes. How ballot curing works.

Ranked-choice counts. Alaska and Maine can’t run their later rounds until all the ballots are in. Election-night numbers in both states show first choices only.

Alaska: first choices on election night, the real count on Nov. 18

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting for Senate, governor and its House seat. The first results are expected around 8:45 to 9 p.m. Alaska time on Nov. 3. Every update through Nov. 18 shows first choices only. Absentee ballots mailed in the U.S. have until Nov. 13 to arrive, and overseas ballots until Nov. 18. The ranked-choice count runs Nov. 18, and the state is aiming to certify on Nov. 25.

That matters in a close Senate race between Mary Peltola and Sen. Dan Sullivan, because the second Dan Sullivan on the ballot, Dan J. Sullivan, could pick up votes that get redistributed in later rounds. In 2024, the Alaska House race between Nick Begich and Peltola wasn’t called until the ranked-choice count on Nov. 20, 15 days after Election Day.

There’s also a lawsuit. On Oct. 22, the Justice Department asked a federal court to block certification if Sen. Sullivan loses but would have won with Dan J. Sullivan’s votes. The state and the Peltola campaign have asked Judge Sharon Gleason to dismiss it, and as of Oct. 28 she had not ruled. The full story is here.

Maine: a ranked-choice ballot for Senate

Six write-in candidates declared for Senate, so Maine’s race between Sen. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson is on a ranked-choice ballot. The 2nd District race is too. If someone wins more than 50% of first choices, the race is over on election night. If not, ballots and memory devices from every town go to a central site in Augusta, and the count proceeds in rounds, removing the last-place candidate each time until one candidate has a majority.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows has told voters to be ready for results to come “the week following the election.” In 2024, the 2nd District’s ranked-choice count started Nov. 12 and Jared Golden was declared the winner Nov. 15. The governor’s race doesn’t use ranked choice in November. Under Maine’s constitution, the most votes wins.

Georgia and Louisiana: the runoff states

Georgia requires a majority in statewide races. If no one gets more than 50% in the Senate race between Sen. Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins, or in the governor’s race, there’s a runoff on Dec. 1, with early voting from Nov. 23. A runoff is unlikely this year because Libertarians didn’t qualify for the ballot, but write-in votes could still force one in a very close race. How Georgia’s runoff works.

Under Louisiana’s new map, Nov. 3 is an open primary for its U.S. House seats. A candidate who tops 50% wins outright. Otherwise, the top two meet in a runoff on Dec. 12. Mississippi’s Senate race needs only a plurality, and its secretary of state has confirmed that.

What recent elections tell us

2022 · Senate4 days

Control was called on Saturday, Nov. 12, when Catherine Cortez Masto won Nevada.

2022 · House8 days

The AP projected the majority on Nov. 16 after calling California’s 27th District.

2024 · SenateElection night

The majority was clear overnight from fast-counting states, including Nebraska.

2024 · House8 days

Control was called on Nov. 13. The last House race, California’s 13th, wasn’t called until Dec. 3.

Other 2024 races in slow-count states took days to call. The AP called Nevada’s Senate race four days after the election, and Arizona’s about six days after. Fast-count states finished overnight: the AP called the Texas Senate race at 11:39 p.m. ET and Ohio’s at 11:28 p.m. on election night.

Calls aren’t results: what “projected” means

No state certifies a winner on election night. The race calls you see come from news decision desks, such as the Associated Press. The AP calls a race only when it decides the trailing candidate has no remaining path to catch up. It doesn’t name “likely” winners, and it may not call a race at all if the top two are within half a percentage point. Official results come later, when counties and states certify. Alaska targets Nov. 25, Arizona’s statewide canvass is Nov. 23, and California certifies by Dec. 11. What happens between election night and certification.

A very close margin can also set off a recount. Pennsylvania and Arizona recount statewide races automatically at 0.5% or less, Ohio at 0.25%, and Michigan at 0.1%. Recount rules by state.

On election night, our live results board refreshes every minute. Every call names the decision desk that made it, and races still being counted are marked as uncalled.

Frequently asked questions

Will we know who controls the Senate on election night?

Only if the majority is settled in states that count quickly. Four of Cook’s seven Toss-Ups, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, usually finish within about a day. If control depends on Alaska, the ranked-choice count isn’t until Nov. 18. If it depends on Maine and no one wins a majority of first choices, Maine’s secretary of state says to expect results the week after the election.

When will we know who controls the House?

Probably not on election night. In both 2022 and 2024, the AP called House control 8 days after the election, because many close seats were in California, Arizona and other states that count for days. California counts mail ballots that arrive through Nov. 10, and its counties certify by Dec. 3.

Why does Alaska take so long?

Alaska counts absentee ballots mailed in the U.S. that arrive by Nov. 13 and overseas ballots through Nov. 18. Its ranked-choice count can’t run until every ballot is in, so the state runs it on Nov. 18. Every result before then shows first choices only.

Does Maine use ranked-choice voting for Senate this year?

Yes. Six write-in candidates declared, so Maine’s Senate race and the 2nd District race are on ranked-choice ballots. A ranked-choice count happens only if no candidate wins more than 50% of first choices. The governor’s race is decided by plurality.

Why do results in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin shift overnight?

Neither state lets election workers process mail ballots before 7 a.m. on Election Day. Those ballots are counted throughout the night, and Milwaukee uploads its absentee ballots in one batch late in the evening, so the totals can move sharply. That’s how the system is designed.

Can a mail ballot that arrives after Election Day still count?

In some states, yes. In Watson v. RNC on June 29, the Supreme Court left the deadline to each state. California, Nevada, Mississippi, Kansas, Alaska, Oregon, Washington and Texas count ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive within their own windows. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin require ballots to arrive by Election Day.

Is a projected winner the official winner?

No. A projection is a news organization’s judgment that the trailing candidate can’t catch up. Results become official only when election officials certify them, which usually takes weeks.

Sources

  1. Alaska Division of Elections: 2026 election calendar
  2. Alaska Public Media: ranked-choice count set for Nov. 18 (Oct. 28, 2026)
  3. Alaska Public Media: what to know about Alaska’s general election (Oct. 5, 2026)
  4. ABC News: Judge skeptical of DOJ’s Alaska lawsuit
  5. AP via ABC News: Begich wins Alaska’s House seat (Nov. 20, 2024)
  6. Portland Press Herald: Ranked-choice voting will be used in Maine’s Senate race (Aug. 25, 2026)
  7. Maine Secretary of State: ranked-choice voting FAQ
  8. Bangor Daily News: Maine’s ranked-choice system and the Senate race (Oct. 26, 2026)
  9. Maine Morning Star: Golden wins 2024 ranked-choice count
  10. Georgia.gov: General election runoff, Dec. 1, 2026
  11. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Libertarians won’t be on Georgia’s ballot (July 2026)
  12. 270toWin: Louisiana’s 2026 election changes
  13. Mississippi Independent: the first federal election under Watson
  14. SCOTUSblog: Justices uphold law allowing late-arriving mail ballots (June 29, 2026)
  15. California Secretary of State: Nov. 3, 2026 key dates
  16. California Secretary of State: county memo on the 2026 cure deadline
  17. Arizona Revised Statutes § 16-548
  18. KJZZ: Maricopa County aims to count 99% by the Friday after Election Day
  19. Maricopa County Elections: new voting options for 2026
  20. KTAR: Arizona 2026 election dates and deadlines
  21. Washoe County: 2026 election timeline
  22. The Nevada Independent: 2026 election FAQ
  23. Oregon Secretary of State: elections calendar
  24. Washington Secretary of State: 2026 general election facts
  25. Pennsylvania Department of State: Covering PA elections 101
  26. Bridge Michigan: How long will it take to report results?
  27. Votebeat: Wisconsin, when to expect results (Aug. 2026)
  28. Center for Election Innovation & Research: Pre-processing timelines, fall 2026
  29. Ballotpedia News: Ohio ends its mail ballot grace period (Dec. 20, 2025)
  30. Texas Tribune: November 2026 voter guide
  31. High Plains Public Radio: Kansas mail ballots accepted for three days after the election (Oct. 7, 2026)
  32. Iowa Secretary of State: absentee voting
  33. New Hampshire Secretary of State: absentee ballots
  34. ABC11: North Carolina 2026 key dates
  35. Minnesota Secretary of State: unofficial results after 8 p.m.
  36. CBS Miami: Florida vote-by-mail in 2026
  37. FactCheck.org: How Florida reports results quickly
  38. Atlanta News First: Georgia’s 8 p.m. reporting rule
  39. NPR: Democrats keep the Senate after Nevada (Nov. 12, 2022)
  40. Boston Globe/AP: The race that decided the 2022 House call
  41. PBS NewsHour: Republicans take the Senate majority (2024)
  42. NPR: Republicans retain House control (Nov. 13, 2024)
  43. Boston Globe/AP: The last House race of 2024 is called
  44. AP: Why AP called Nevada’s Senate race for Rosen (2024)
  45. AP: Why AP called Arizona’s Senate race for Gallego (2024)
  46. AP: Why AP called the Texas Senate race (2024)
  47. AP: Why AP called the Ohio Senate race (2024)
  48. AP via WBUR: How AP calls races
  49. Verified Voting: recount laws by state