The Scandal That Opened TX-23: Gonzales, Herrera, and the Border District Democrats Think They Can Flip

Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned on April 14 after admitting to an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide. The sprawling border district that runs from San Antonio to El Paso — once safely Republican — is now an open battlefield between a YouTube gun personality and a former public school teacher.

The Scandal

The unraveling of Tony Gonzales was swift and brutal. In late 2025, Uvalde police responded to the home of a former Gonzales staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles, who had set herself on fire. Investigators later revealed that Santos-Aviles told officers she discovered her husband was "cheating on her with her best friend" — and separate reports identified Gonzales as the other party.

Gonzales denied the affair for months. Then cell phone records surfaced showing texts in which the congressman asked Santos-Aviles to "send me a sexy pic," adding "I'm just such a visual person." Santos-Aviles responded: "This is going too far boss."

After finishing second to Brandon Herrera in the March 3 Republican primary — forcing a runoff — Gonzales dropped his reelection bid. On April 13, facing both a House Ethics Committee investigation and a possible expulsion vote, he announced his resignation, framing it as a spiritual decision.

The Candidates

Brandon Herrera is a firearms manufacturer and YouTube personality known as "The AK Guy." He won the Republican primary after hammering Gonzales over his 2022 vote for the bipartisan gun safety bill passed after the Uvalde school shooting — which occurred in this very district. He has been described by House Majority PAC as "an antisemitic YouTuber with a record that's far outside the mainstream."

Katy Padilla Stout is a San Antonio attorney and former public school teacher who represents children in foster care. She's been endorsed by EMILY's List and has reported raising over $200,000 since the primary, with more than 6,000 individual donors. She called for an immediate special election the day Gonzales resigned.

The District

TX-23 was a swing district throughout the 2010s but shifted rightward through redistricting and broader GOP gains among Hispanic voters. Gonzales won by 24 points in 2024. But with a damaged Republican brand — Herrera carries the baggage of controversial online content, and the district's most famous Republican just resigned in disgrace — Democrats see an opening.

The Special Election Question

Governor Greg Abbott has not announced a special election date. Under Texas law, he has broad discretion on timing. In a previous vacancy in Houston's 18th District, Abbott left the seat empty for 11 months in a Democratic-leaning district — a move widely seen as protecting the Republican majority.

The TX-23 calculus is different. It's an R+7 seat, so Abbott may feel more comfortable calling a quick election. But with Democrats overperforming in every recent special election — including a 31-point swing in a Texas state Senate race in Fort Worth — even "safe" Republican territory carries risk.

Both Herrera and Padilla Stout are also on the ballot for the regular November election, meaning the district could see two elections in quick succession if Abbott acts.

Why It Matters Nationally

The House majority is 218-214. Every seat counts. If Democrats win TX-23 in a special election, Johnson's effective majority drops to one — and the psychological impact of a Democratic win in a Texas border district would reverberate through every competitive race in the country.

Generic ballot polling in the district already shows a tight race: Republicans lead just 47-45% with 8% undecided. Trump's favorability in TX-23 is underwater at 48-52%. This isn't a safe seat anymore. It's a bellwether.