Susan Collins' Last Stand: New England's Last Republican Faces the Fight of Her Life

She's the only Republican in all of New England at the federal level. She's been in the Senate since 1997. And new polling shows her trailing both Democratic challengers, underwater with independents by 30 points, with 71% of Mainers — including 57% of Republicans — saying she doesn't deserve another term.

The Loneliest Republican in America

Susan Collins is a political species that has been going extinct for decades: the moderate Northeastern Republican. Since Jared Golden won Maine's 2nd Congressional District in 2018, Collins has been the only Republican representing any New England state at the federal level, in either chamber of Congress. She is the only Republican senator representing a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. She is, in the most literal sense, the last of her kind.

That once made her invaluable. Her cross-party appeal let her outperform the national Republican brand in a state that has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. She won re-election in 2020 by 9 points even as Biden carried the state by the same margin — one of the most impressive ticket-splitting performances in modern Senate history.

But the numbers from 2025 and 2026 tell a different story. Collins' favorability has collapsed. A University of New Hampshire poll found only 14% of Mainers view her favorably versus 57% unfavorable. An April 2025 UNH survey found that 71% of Mainers believe she doesn't deserve re-election — including a remarkable 57% of Republicans.

The Democratic Primary: Mills vs. Platner

Democrats have two serious contenders in the June 9 primary, and their choice could determine the outcome of the general election.

Governor Janet Mills is the establishment choice — backed by Senate Democratic leadership, with two statewide wins under her belt and deep ties to Maine's political infrastructure. She entered the race promising to take on Collins for failing to stand up to Trump's agenda. But Mills carries baggage: she is the least popular Democratic governor in the country according to Morning Consult polling, and the Democratic primary electorate appears to want a different kind of candidate.

Graham Platner is that different kind of candidate. An oyster farmer, veteran, and self-described outsider, Platner has built an insurgent grassroots campaign that has stunned the Maine establishment. He leads Mills 55-28% among likely Democratic primary voters in Emerson polling. He's secured endorsements from Senators Elizabeth Warren, Martin Heinrich, and Ruben Gallego. DNC Chair Ken Martin has publicly backed his candidacy.

The most striking number: in the March 2026 Emerson poll, Platner leads Collins 48-41% in a hypothetical general election matchup — a 7-point lead. Mills leads Collins by a narrower 46-43%. Both leads fall outside the margin of error.

Why Collins Is Vulnerable

Three dynamics have converged to make this Collins' most difficult race since she first won the seat in 1996.

First, the decline of ticket-splitting. Collins has historically survived by attracting Democrats and independents who split their tickets between a Democratic presidential candidate and her. But political polarization has steadily eroded this group. Every election, fewer voters are willing to vote for candidates of different parties. Collins may have been the last senator to pull off a major ticket-split performance in 2020, but replicating that in a more polarized 2026 is a fundamentally harder task.

Second, her Kavanaugh vote. Collins' 2018 decision to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court permanently damaged her relationship with Maine's independent and moderate Democratic voters. The decision activated a massive fundraising campaign against her (ActBlue raised over $4 million for her eventual 2020 challenger from small donors) and remains a defining moment of her career in the minds of many Maine voters.

Third, Trump. Collins has tried to maintain her centrist brand by occasionally pushing back against the administration — opposing Medicaid cuts, questioning foreign aid rescissions, raising concerns about the "Big Beautiful Bill." But she hasn't broken decisively on any major vote, and voters increasingly view her through a partisan lens rather than as an independent actor. As Mills put it in a campaign statement, "seniority without a backbone is just tenure."

The Collins Counterargument

Republicans and Collins allies aren't panicking — at least not publicly. Their case for Collins rests on three pillars.

First, Maine is genuinely quirky. It's the state where Jared Golden, a Democrat, holds the reddest House district at the presidential level (Trump won it by 9 points). Ticket-splitting may be dying nationally, but Maine has historically been an exception. Collins has survived predicted demises before.

Second, her approval numbers may be misleading. Republican voters who view Collins unfavorably aren't going to vote for a Democrat — they'll come home on Election Day. Her low favorability among her own party is partially driven by conservatives who wish she were more Trumpist, not by people who will actually defect.

Third, ranked-choice voting could help her. In a ranked-choice system, Collins needs to reach a majority. If multiple Democrats run in the general (unlikely but possible), she could benefit from a fragmented opposition. And her centrist brand might attract second-choice votes from moderate Democratic voters in a way that a more partisan Republican could not.

The Stakes

Maine is arguably the single most important Senate race on the 2026 map. It is the only Republican-held seat in a state Harris carried. It is, mathematically, the easiest pickup opportunity for Democrats in the entire cycle. If Democrats cannot win Maine, their path to a Senate majority becomes nearly impossible.

No Democrat has won a Maine Senate race since George Mitchell in 1988. No Democrat has ever won this specific seat since William Hathaway in 1972. Collins herself has won five consecutive elections. Unseating her would be historic by any measure.

The June 9 primary will clarify the Democratic nominee. The November 3 general election will answer whether Collins' singular brand of Northeastern Republicanism has one more act left — or whether the last of a dying breed has finally run out of road.