On April 29, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district in Louisiana v. Callais, ruling 6–3 that it constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. The decision severely weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act — the provision that has been the primary legal tool for challenging discriminatory redistricting since 1965.
Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority had rendered Section 2 “all but a dead letter.” She was right. In the five weeks since, the ruling has triggered a cascade of redistricting moves that could shift as many as 17 House seats toward Republicans before a single general election vote is cast.
The State-by-State Tracker
The Cascade
The timeline since Callais reads like a domino chain. On May 7, Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district into three. On May 8, Cook Political Report moved 12 House races — 11 of them in Republicans’ favor. On May 13, Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in a GOP gerrymander that moved MO-05 from Safe D to Safe R, effectively eliminating Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s seat.
South Carolina was the one place where the cascade stopped. On May 27, the SC Senate killed a Trump-backed redistricting bill that would have eliminated Rep. James Clyburn’s SC-06. Twelve Republicans crossed party lines to block it, arguing that early voting had already begun. It was a rare bipartisan moment in an otherwise partisan process.
Virginia’s redistricting fight ended with a whimper. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency appeal on May 16, leaving a Virginia Supreme Court ruling intact. The state will use its 2021 court-drawn maps, but Cook’s rating shifts (including VA-02 moving from Lean D to Toss-Up) remain in effect.
The Net Effect
GOP-led states now hold a roughly 17-seat redistricting advantage compared to about 6 for Democrats. That advantage was built over multiple cycles, but Callais supercharged it by removing the legal guardrails that had constrained the most aggressive gerrymanders.
At least 15 House seats currently held by Black members could be at risk under post-Callais maps nationwide. The ruling didn’t just shift political power — it fundamentally changed the legal framework for how congressional districts are drawn. Its full impact won’t be felt until the 2030 redistricting cycle, but the 2026 midterms are already being fought on a map that Callais helped draw.
Georgia is next. Gov. Kemp’s June 17 special session will be the first post-Callais redistricting effort explicitly designed for a future cycle. If Georgia’s legislature draws maps that eliminate majority-minority districts, it will test whether any legal challenge can succeed in the post-Callais landscape. The answer will shape American democracy for a generation.