NE-02: The Blue Dot’s Most Expensive Primary and What Comes Next

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District — the Omaha-area seat colloquially known as the “blue dot” — just had the most expensive Democratic primary in its history. Denise Powell, a political organizer who co-founded Women Run Nebraska and describes herself as “one pissed-off mom,” defeated State Sen. John Cavanaugh by roughly 2 percentage points in a six-person field. The race was called on Wednesday, May 14, after Douglas County election officials confirmed the remaining ballots couldn’t close the gap.

Powell will face Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Council member who ran unopposed in his primary and has endorsements from both Trump and retiring Rep. Don Bacon. The November matchup in this R+1 district is now one of the most important House races in the country.

Why This District Matters Nationally

Nebraska is one of only two states (along with Maine) that splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district. NE-02 is the lone district in the state that has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in recent cycles — backing Kamala Harris by 5 points in 2024 and Joe Biden in 2020. That’s what earned it the “blue dot” nickname.

But the blue dot’s significance extends far beyond the Electoral College. With the House split 217-212 (plus one Independent caucusing with Republicans) and five vacancies, every competitive open seat is a potential majority-maker. Don Bacon’s retirement removed one of the few moderate Republicans who had held this district through multiple cycles. The seat is now genuinely open.

The Primary: Dark Money and the Blue Dot Defense

The Democratic primary was shaped by a single strategic argument: electing Cavanaugh to Congress could kill the blue dot itself.

The logic was straightforward. If Cavanaugh, a state senator, won the House seat, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint his replacement in the state legislature. That replacement would likely vote to make Nebraska a winner-take-all Electoral College state — eliminating the blue dot’s ability to award a single electoral vote to the Democratic presidential nominee. Trump and his allies had already tried to push this change in 2024 and failed because of Democratic votes in the legislature.

Two progressive super PACs invested more than $1 million amplifying this argument on Omaha airwaves. Powell’s overall primary attracted $5.6 million in outside spending — an extraordinary figure for a single House primary, let alone one in Nebraska.

Cavanaugh hit back hard, airing ads calling his opponent “Dark Money Denise” and arguing that Democrats would win enough state legislative seats to protect the blue dot regardless. Six state senators signed an open letter to voters making the same case. But the spending disparity proved decisive.

Who Is Denise Powell?

Powell has never held elected office. She co-founded Women Run Nebraska (later Women Who Run Nebraska), a PAC that coached women on how to run for local and state office. She is a business and nonprofit consultant and the daughter of Chilean and Cuban immigrants — the first Latina to file for federal office in Nebraska.

In her campaign ads, she leaned into outsider credibility. She told voters she was running because Trump “makes life harder for working people” and positioned herself around kitchen-table economic issues: rising costs, housing, and healthcare.

By Thursday, May 14, Powell was already pivoting to the general election, holding a press event at a Little League outfield in Omaha’s Memorial Park. She acknowledged the “fiery” primary and pledged to reach out to Cavanaugh’s supporters. Cavanaugh conceded and said he would support the Democratic nominee.

Who Is Brinker Harding?

Harding is an Omaha City Council member and former staffer for retired Rep. Hal Daub. He ran unopposed in the Republican primary and had a head start on general election campaigning. He has Trump’s endorsement, Bacon’s endorsement, and Gov. Pillen’s enthusiastic backing.

His campaign immediately seized on the primary spending to brand Powell as an outside-money candidate. Within minutes of the AP calling the race, the National Republican Congressional Committee posted a digital ad against her. Harding’s campaign called her “an out-of-state, out-of-touch progressive activist trying to buy a House seat in Nebraska.”

“Whoever the Democrats put up from their circus primary, we will beat them come November.”

— Brinker Harding, at the Nebraska Republican watch party, May 12

Harding’s strategy appears to differ from Bacon’s moderate approach. Where Bacon worked the political center to win five terms, Harding is running as a more conventional conservative. That may be a miscalculation in a district where independent and crossover voters have historically decided the outcome.

The General Election Landscape

Powell enters the general election with significant tailwinds and significant challenges.

The tailwinds: Trump’s approval rating is at a record low. The generic ballot shows Democrats ahead nationally by 10 points. The Iran war is unpopular. Gas prices are above $4.20/gallon. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms.

The challenges: Powell is a first-time candidate who just emerged from a bruising primary with the “Dark Money Denise” label attached. She needs to unify a Democratic base that split roughly evenly between her and Cavanaugh. Harding has been running an uncontested general election campaign since May 12, building a coalition and raising money while Democrats were fighting each other.

The DCCC chair, Suzan DelBene, signaled national investment by immediately dismissing Harding as “another empty suit that Donald Trump and his MAGA extremists would control in Congress.” That framing — tying Harding to Trump rather than to Bacon’s moderate brand — will likely be the Democratic playbook for the fall.

The Bigger Picture: NE-02 and the House Majority

Democrats need a net gain of six seats to retake the House. NE-02 is near the top of every target list. A Democratic win here, combined with pickups in districts like CA-22, PA-10, and the redistricted seats in California, could be enough to flip the majority.

But there’s a Libertarian candidate on the ballot — Eric Michael Foreman — who could complicate the math. In a district decided by fewer than 2 points in 2024, even a small third-party vote share matters.

Nebraska’s 2nd District has defied its state’s deep-red leanings for years. The question this November is whether the blue dot endures — and whether it takes the House majority with it.