Trump's approval among independents has fallen to 25-34%. Historically, every president who dropped below 40% with independents lost the House. Here's what the data says.
Ken Paxton and Graham Platner both visited DC on June 2 to rally party support. Both parties wish they had different nominees. Here's why it matters.
The Supreme Court's April 29 ruling gutted the Voting Rights Act. Since then, 12 states have redrawn or are redrawing maps. Here's the full tracker.
Graham Platner leads Susan Collins by 7 points in polling averages. But controversies, a contested primary, and ranked-choice voting make this race unpredictable.
Iran launched strikes on Kuwait's international airport on June 3, killing one person and threatening the fragile ceasefire. Here's what it means for the midterms.
The national average dropped to $4.24, down 31 cents from the May peak. If the ceasefire holds, prices could keep falling. If it collapses, expect a spike.
Georgia voters return to the polls June 16 for high-stakes runoffs in the governor and Senate races, with a redistricting special session starting the next day.
June 2 brought a rare R-vs-D governor general, Spencer Pratt nearly making the LA mayor runoff, and the first test of California's redrawn House map.
Trump hit 31% approval in the latest ARG poll — his worst number across both terms. Here's the historical context and what it means for the midterms.
SCOTUS killed Virginia's maps. South Carolina's Senate blocked Trump. The 2026 redistricting battle is settled. Here's the final scorecard and what it means for the House.
Ken Paxton crushed John Cornyn 62.8% to 37.2%. Now he faces Democrat James Talarico in November — and his baggage could make Texas genuinely competitive.
Polymarket gives Democrats an 81% chance of winning the House — up from ~45% earlier this spring. Here's what changed and what the data says.
From the TX runoff May 26 to the LA runoff June 27, a guide to every critical date this summer.
From Cassidy to Massie, from Cheney to Romney. A definitive accounting of Trump's revenge campaign against the Republicans who voted to convict him.
Christine Drazan lost by 3.5 points in 2022's three-way race. This time it's a direct rematch — no spoiler. Oregon hasn't elected an R governor since 1982, but Kotek is vulnerable.
Gas prices hit the highest of 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Summer driving season hasn't even started.
Thomas Massie voted his conscience on everything. AIPAC and Trump spent $32.6M to end his career. What his defeat says about the modern GOP.
Trump has hit 31% approval — the lowest of either term. What the data says about November.
Mitch McConnell's retirement opens a seat that hasn't been contested without an incumbent since 1972. Here's who's running and whether Democrats have a shot.
Full results from May 19 primaries: Trump ousts Rep. Massie in KY-04, Georgia governor and Senate races head to June 16 runoffs, Alabama Senate runoff set, Drazan wins Oregon. Analysis.
Georgia was supposed to be Republicans' easiest Senate pickup. Instead, a fractured primary, no Trump endorsement, and a $31M Democratic war chest have turned it into a liability.
Democrats need to flip 4 Senate seats to win the majority. North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and one long shot. Here's where each race stands.
At $4.52 per gallon and rising, gas prices from the Iran war are transforming the 2026 midterms. The electoral fallout is hitting every battleground state.
Democrats have a D+6 to D+8 generic ballot lead. But mid-decade gerrymandering has added 17 seats to the GOP advantage. Can a wave overcome a rigged map?
Democrats are favored to retake the House, but redistricting means they need D+4 nationally. Current polls are close to that threshold. Here's the full picture.
The second-most House retirements since 1992, with Republicans leaving at nearly 2-to-1 over Democrats. What the exodus tells us about the party's internal health and the midterm…
From Louisiana v. Callais to South Carolina's special session, the mid-decade redistricting wars have reshaped the House map. A comprehensive analysis of every state, every map, and every…
The Missouri Supreme Court heard oral arguments and issued three unanimous rulings the same afternoon, locking in a GOP map that targets Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City seat.
Kentucky's May 19 primary features the most expensive House race in history, the battle to succeed Mitch McConnell, and a Democratic Senate primary that could determine November's outcome.
Governor, Senate, and 14 House seats on the ballot. Record early voting. Crowded primaries on both sides. Georgia's May 19 primary is the marquee event of the midterm season.
Georgia has both a GOP governor runoff and a GOP Senate runoff on June 16 while Democrats coast untouched.
Ken Paxton defeated John Cornyn 62.8% to 37.2% in the Texas GOP Senate runoff on May 26, 2026. Full results, House runoffs, AG race, and what it means for November.
The SC Senate blocked redistricting 29-17. Two days later, Gov. McMaster called a special session anyway. Inside the fight to eliminate Jim Clyburn's seat — and the GOP senators who defied…
The South Carolina Senate killed Trump's redistricting push on May 27. Twelve Republicans crossed party lines to block a 7-0 GOP map that would have eliminated Rep. James Clyburn's district.
Denise Powell won NE-02's razor-thin Democratic primary with $5.6M in outside spending. She'll face Trump-endorsed Brinker Harding in a district that could decide the House majority.
Alabama's May 19 primary is the first election held after SCOTUS cleared a redrawn map under the Callais ruling. Rep. Shomari Figures' seat is in the crosshairs. Here's what the results…
Virginia Democrats filed an emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate their redistricting referendum. The state court struck it down 4-3. Here's why the appeal faces long odds…
The Supreme Court cleared Alabama to revert to a single majority-Black congressional district, threatening Rep. Shomari Figures' seat just 8 days before the state's primary. Here's what it…
Nebraska and West Virginia held primaries on May 13. Pete Ricketts won the GOP Senate nod but faces independent Dan Osborn in November. Don Bacon's open NE-02 seat drew a crowded Democratic…
Gas has hit $4.39 nationally, with three states above $5 a gallon. Trump's approval has cratered to 34%. The war he launched on February 28 was supposed to last six weeks. Here's how it's…
Texas's May 26 GOP Senate runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton has devolved into scorched-earth warfare, with national implications for Senate control.
In Louisiana v. Callais, the Supreme Court gutted Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in a 6-3 ruling that could reshape Congress for a generation. Here's what it means for 2026.
Mid-decade gerrymandering has given the GOP a net 8-seat structural advantage. The Virginia ruling made it worse. But at -20 approval, maps may not be enough.
Florida's legislature passed Gov. DeSantis's congressional map in 72 hours, targeting 4 Democratic seats. But analysts warn the aggressive gerrymander could backfire.
Byron Donalds leads with Trump's endorsement. David Jolly switched parties to run as a Democrat. A Groyper-adjacent provocateur is making noise at 4%. Welcome to Florida.
Cornyn and Paxton battle in a May 26 runoff while Democrat James Talarico leads both in polls and raised a record $27M in Q1. Could Texas flip blue for the first time since 1988?
An oyster farmer and a sitting governor are in a bruising Democratic primary to take on Susan Collins. Polling, fundraising, and what it all means for November.
Early voting is underway. The governor's race is a free-for-all. The Senate GOP primary is a three-way split. Here's your guide to Georgia's May 19 primary.
Iowa's state auditor leads GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra by 12 points in a state Trump won by 13. The governor's race is officially a barnburner.
Virginia voters approved a Democratic redistricting amendment by a 3-point margin on April 21, 2026. Less than 24 hours later, a Tazewell County judge declared the result void. Inside the…
President Trump floated canceling the 2026 midterm elections twice in January — at the Kennedy Center and in a Reuters interview. Election experts and state officials explain why it can't…
The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. 2026 has none of the conditions that produced the two exceptions. Here's the history and what it means.
The Iran war spiked gas to $4/gallon and oil past $100/barrel. 69% of Americans cite fuel prices as their top concern. How the conflict is reshaping the 2026 midterm elections.
217 Republicans, 214 Democrats, 1 Independent, 3 vacancies. Speaker Johnson can lose exactly one vote. How the House became ungovernable.
8 in 10 Gen Z members say the country is on the wrong track — including half of young Republicans. Youth primary turnout is surging. Here's what it means for the midterms.
On April 14, Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) both resigned from Congress amid sexual misconduct allegations. The fallout reshaped two races and the House majority.
Eric Swalwell was leading the polls. Then sexual assault allegations ended his campaign overnight. Now 61 candidates, Trump's endorsement, and a top-two primary threaten Democratic chaos.
Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump took office. Republicans have flipped zero. An 11-point average overperformance in 2026 special elections is the biggest since…
Virginia voters decide today whether to approve a Democratic-drawn congressional map that could give Democrats a 10-1 advantage in the state's House delegation. Everything you need to know.
Tony Gonzales resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Now a YouTuber and gun manufacturer faces a public school teacher in one of the most unexpected races of 2026.
From gas prices to Gen Z polling to special election swings, these are the 10 data points that tell you everything about where the 2026 midterms are headed.
The complete 2026 primary election calendar. Every state, every date, every key race — sortable, filterable, and updated in real time. Bookmark this page.
Six states have new congressional maps. More are coming. Trump started it. Democrats retaliated. The courts are split. Here's the state-by-state guide to the redistricting wars of 2025-2026.
The complete guide to 2026 election night poll closing times. When every state's polls close, adjusted to Eastern time. Know exactly when to expect results for the races that matter.
Hinson vs. Turek for Senate. Sand vs. Lahn for governor. Both races are competitive, and tariff damage to Iowa's agricultural economy looms over both.
Abortion rights in Virginia and Nevada. A $15 minimum wage in Oklahoma. Marijuana battles in Idaho. Missouri trying to repeal its own abortion amendment. The complete 2026 ballot measure…
Trump's net approval has hit -20.1, a new second-term low. Cost of living approval is at -41.8. Here's what the numbers mean for November.
He lost by 3.5 points in 2024. Now Sherrod Brown is running again — in a state that's moved 11 points right — and the polls say he might actually win. Here's how.
It's been a month since Tony Gonzales resigned. Gov. Abbott still hasn't called a special election. The delay is a feature, not a bug — and it's preserving the GOP's razor-thin House…
Detroit's three-term mayor left the Democratic Party, raised $5 million from Michigan donors, and is polling in a three-way dead heat for governor. Michigan has never elected an independent…
58 House members and 14 senators are leaving Congress in 2026 — the highest departure count this century. Republicans are fleeing at nearly 2-to-1.
Both Joni Ernst and Kim Reynolds are leaving. Iowa hasn't had open races for governor AND Senate on the same ballot since 1968. Here's the full field, the domino effects, and why Democrats…
Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in the Texas Senate runoff. With $125M spent and Talarico polling competitively, could this be the seat that flips the Senate?
Susan Collins is trailing in polls, underwater with independents by 30 points, and 71% of Mainers say she doesn't deserve re-election. Can the Senate's most famous centrist survive 2026?
A four-term senator vs. an impeached AG facing securities fraud charges. Trump hasn't endorsed either. The May 26 runoff could determine whether Texas — and the Senate — flip blue.
Follow the money in the most expensive Senate primary ever. Where $125M went and what it bought.
The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity is racing to collect 413,488 signatures by July 5, 2026 to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. Here's what the amendment…
Generic ballot D+10. Trump approval at record lows. Gas at $4.23. Redistricting +9 for the GOP. Dem special election overperformance at +12. Five metrics that tell you where November is…
Amy Acton has erased Vivek Ramaswamy's double-digit lead in Ohio's governor race. A deep dive into the polls, the money, and why Democrats think they can win their first statewide race…
Thomas Massie faces $34 million in outside spending, Trump's wrath, and AIPAC's war chest in the most expensive House primary in American history. Here's why Kentucky's 4th District should…
James Fishback is running for Florida governor on rage bait, anti-AI populism, and Waffle House bans. Inside the strangest — and most revealing — campaign of 2026.
James Talarico won the Texas Democratic Senate primary. Now the former middle school teacher faces either John Cornyn or Ken Paxton in November — and early polls show him leading both.