Darline Graham Wins South Carolina’s Runoff, and Trump’s Endorsement Rebounds

Appointed Sen. Darline Graham won South Carolina’s Republican Senate runoff on August 25, beating Rep. Ralph Norman 193,486 votes to 175,412 — 52.4% to 47.6%. She carried 34 of the state’s 46 counties. Turnout was about 12% of registered voters, up slightly from 11% in the August 11 primary. The result settles a nomination that opened when Sen. Lindsey Graham, her brother, died on July 11, and it sets up a general election against Democrat Annie Andrews that has been closer in early polling than South Carolina’s recent history would suggest.

How Graham won

Graham led the ten-candidate special primary on August 11 with about a third of the vote, well short of a majority. Norman finished second at about 24%, ahead of Rep. Russell Fry (about 20%), and former Gov. Mark Sanford was eliminated. The two-week runoff came down to where the Fry and Sanford voters went.

Trump made the runoff a test of his endorsement. He rallied for Graham in Myrtle Beach on Friday, August 21, and held a tele-rally the night before the vote. MAGA Inc., the main pro-Trump super PAC, spent more than $800,000. In his concession speech, Norman said he never understood why Trump got involved in the race, then conceded and said he would support Graham. No recount was sought.

The general election: closer than the label

South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998, and Trump carried the state by about 18 points in 2024. But the first general-election polls have been tight, and forecasters have noticed. Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid R to Likely R on September 23. Sabato’s Crystal Ball still calls it Safe R.

Trafalgar · released Sept. 26 · 1,089 LV

Andrews (D)42

Graham (R)43

InsiderAdvantage · released Sept. 10 · 1,200 LV

Andrews (D)43

Graham (R)45

DemocratRepublican

Andrews is a Charleston pediatrician who won her Democratic primary outright in June. A one-point race in a Trafalgar poll does not make South Carolina a toss-up. Both polls show large undecided shares, and undecided voters in a state this Republican tend to come home. What the polls do show is that Graham, appointed in July, has not yet built the cushion a Republican nominee usually has here. We look at South Carolina alongside Kansas, Nebraska and Minnesota in the Senate’s second tier.

Oklahoma: a squeaker and a first

GA-13: the vacancy is filled

Everton Blair Jr. beat Marcye Scott 53.2%–46.8% in the all-Democratic special runoff for the seat left vacant by the death of Rep. David Scott in April. Only about 20,000 ballots were cast, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Blair was sworn in on September 1 and serves until January. He is the first openly LGBTQ person elected to Congress from Georgia. State Rep. Jasmine Clark, who won the May primary, is the nominee for the full term beginning in January. With Blair and California’s Aisha Wahab seated, the House stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent, with two vacancies.

What the night meant for Trump’s endorsement

The runoffs came a week after Trump’s endorsement took three losses in eight days. Between August 11 and August 18, three Trump-endorsed candidates lost: Mike Lindell in Minnesota’s governor primary, Megan Degenfelder in Wyoming’s, and Rep. Cory Mills in Florida’s 7th District. On August 25 his candidates won both marquee runoffs.

The runoffs did not erase the August losses. But Trump’s candidates won both runoffs, and in South Carolina, where he rallied in person, his pick beat a sitting congressman. For Republicans who had begun to question how much the endorsement still moves primary voters, August 25 was a counterexample.