Congress is hemorrhaging members. As of June 2026, 71 sitting representatives and senators have announced they will not seek re-election to their current seats — the highest combined departure count this century and the second-highest since recordkeeping began nearly a century ago.
The breakdown tells a story: 36 House Republicans are leaving, compared to 22 House Democrats. On the Senate side, 7 Republicans and 4 Democrats have announced retirements. The total of 14 Senate retirements ties the modern record.
What the Numbers Mean
In every modern wave election, retirement numbers have been a leading indicator. Members of Congress have better internal polling, better fundraising data, and better institutional knowledge than anyone. When they start leaving in disproportionate numbers from one party, it’s because they see what’s coming.
The 36 Republican House retirements break the single-party record of 34 set in 2018 — the cycle that preceded Democrats’ 40-seat wave. The parallels are hard to ignore: a first-term Republican president with cratering approval, an energized Democratic base, and a hemorrhage of GOP incumbents who would rather go home than defend a losing ticket.
The Marquee Departures
The retirement list reads like a congressional who’s who. On the Senate side, Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), and Steve Daines (Montana) are among the Republicans leaving. Democratic departures include Tina Smith (Minnesota), Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire), and Gary Peters (Michigan).
In the House, the departures include Nancy Pelosi (California) — the longest-serving Democratic leader in history — plus a wave of members seeking governorships, Senate seats, or simply the exit.
NPR reported that the retirement pace was “record-setting and accelerating, driven overwhelmingly by GOP members.” Not all retirements create competitive open seats — many are in safe districts for either party. But the sheer volume creates more opportunities for upsets, more resources stretched thin, and more signal about the national environment.
The Open-Seat Problem
Open seats are harder to defend than incumbency. Incumbents have name recognition, constituent service records, and fundraising advantages. When they leave, their party must recruit a new candidate, build a new campaign operation, and defend a seat without the personal brand that held it. In a wave year, open seats are the first to fall.
The 2026 retirement wave is creating dozens of new competitive races in districts that were previously considered safe. It’s also forcing both party campaign committees to make agonizing triage decisions about where to spend money — decisions that become even harder when the national environment is this hostile for one side.
When this many members head for the exits, it’s not a coincidence. It’s a forecast.