61 Candidates, Zero Frontrunner: Inside California's Governor Race After Swalwell's Collapse

Eric Swalwell was polling first. He had labor endorsements, congressional endorsements, and momentum. Then CNN and the San Francisco Chronicle published detailed sexual assault allegations. His campaign collapsed in 48 hours. His congressional seat is vacant. And California's governor race — already the most crowded in the country — just became the most chaotic.

The Swalwell Implosion

Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial campaign on Sunday, April 13, following multiple reports of sexual assault and misconduct. He resigned from Congress the next day — the same day as Tony Gonzales — facing a pending expulsion vote. He acknowledged "mistakes in judgment" while denying the most serious allegations.

The collapse was disorienting in its speed. Just one week earlier, an Emerson College poll showed Swalwell leading the Democratic field with 17% — modest, but ahead in a crowded race. He had been endorsed by the California Labor Federation, the California Teachers Association, SEIU, and Senator Adam Schiff. All of those endorsements have since been withdrawn or frozen.

The Democratic Field

With Swalwell gone, the Democratic lane is wide open. The leading contenders:

Steyer has the money advantage — $89 million in ad spending — but no clear path to consolidating the party. Porter has the name recognition but stumbled after videos surfaced of her berating a reporter. Mahan is raising from Silicon Valley but has drawn fire for ties to Peter Thiel-adjacent donors. Becerra has the résumé but has struggled to gain traction.

The Republican Wildcard

California uses a top-two primary system, meaning the two candidates with the most votes — regardless of party — advance to the general election. In a state where Democrats haven't lost a statewide race since 2006, the nightmare scenario for the party is a split Democratic vote that sends two Republicans to the general.

That scenario became less likely on April 6 when Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, the Fox News personality and former adviser to British PM David Cameron. Trump's endorsement consolidates Republican support behind Hilton and away from Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — reducing the chance that the two Republicans split votes evenly enough for both to finish in the top two.

Paradoxically, Trump's endorsement may have helped Democrats. UC Berkeley professor Eric Schickler told Time that it "makes it less likely that Democrats have to end up facing what would be a disaster for the party."

The Timeline

Six weeks out from the June 2 primary, there is no frontrunner. The next round of polling — expected in late April — will be the first to measure the post-Swalwell landscape. Until then, every campaign is scrambling for the 15-20% of Democratic voters who just lost their candidate.