The 31% President: Trump’s Approval Collapse, by the Numbers
From 47% at inauguration to 31% in May. A data-driven look at the steepest presidential approval decline since Nixon — and what it means for the midterms.
No president in the modern polling era has entered a midterm election year this unpopular. Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen from 47% at his second inauguration to 31% in the latest American Research Group survey (May 16–20, 2026) — a 16-point collapse in 16 months. Fox News, typically the most favorable major pollster for Trump, has him at 39% approve / 61% disapprove — the highest disapproval they have ever recorded during his presidency. Republican net approval in Fox’s own survey has fallen 14 points since February alone.
The Silver Bulletin aggregate, which weights polls by reliability and recency, puts Trump’s net approval at −20.1 as of May 18 — a new second-term record low. One week earlier it was −19.1. One week before that, −18.6. The decline has not stabilized. It is accelerating.
The Drivers
Three forces are compounding:
Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28, remains deeply unpopular. Sixty-five percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted, choking 20% of global oil flows. There is no visible path to resolution, and the war has produced no clear strategic objective that voters can rally behind.
The national average hit $4.55/gal (AAA, May 21) — the highest of 2026 and a 62% increase from $2.81 in January. This is the single most visceral economic indicator. Voters see it every time they drive. Net approval on inflation and cost of living: −41.8 (Silver Bulletin) — the worst issue rating of Trump’s career.
Among independent voters, Trump’s approval has fallen to 25% (ARG) and 34% (USPollingData aggregate). Every president who triggered a wave midterm loss saw independent approval fall below 40% before Election Day. Trump is well below that threshold and falling. PBS/NPR/Marist has independents preferring a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by 33 points.
The Historical Comparison
The comparison that matters is George W. Bush in 2006. Bush entered that midterm year at roughly 43% approval. By November, he was at 38%. Republicans lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats in what was then called a “wave election.”
Trump is already below Bush’s Election Day number — and it’s only May. The FiftyPlusOne aggregate has Trump at 36.6% approve, 60.1% disapprove. If these numbers hold, the historical models project Democratic gains of 30 to 45 House seats — more than enough to flip the chamber.
Obama at 47% lost 63 House seats in 2010. Bush at 38% lost 30 House seats in 2006. Trump at 42% lost 41 House seats in 2018. Trump at 31–37% in 2026 is uncharted territory in the modern era.
What Could Change
Two things could arrest the decline. First, a resolution to the Iran war that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and brings gas prices down meaningfully. Energy analysts caution this would take months even with a ceasefire, due to infrastructure damage. Second, an economic shock in the positive direction — a GDP surge, a jobs boom, a tariff rollback — that changes the cost-of-living narrative. Neither appears imminent.
The more likely trajectory is continued erosion. Summer driving season will push gas prices higher. The war shows no signs of ending. Tariff-driven inflation (PCE hit 4.5% in Q1) is baked in. And the Republican primary calendar — which continues to produce Trump loyalists over electable moderates — ensures that the president’s unpopularity will be maximally transferred to his party’s nominees.
At 31%, Trump is not just unpopular. He is historically, categorically, generationally unpopular. The last president to enter a midterm with approval this low was Richard Nixon in 1974. Republicans lost 49 House seats that year. The question for 2026 is not whether Democrats will gain seats. It’s how many.