{
  "title": "ElectionTracker Intelligence — nine Senate race research pilot",
  "as_of": "2026-10-26",
  "release": "2026-10-26-intelligence-v2",
  "election_day": "2026-11-03",
  "minimum_pollsters": 3,
  "methodology": {
    "window_days": 45,
    "recency_half_life_days": 14,
    "sample_reference_size": 1000,
    "sample_factor_limits": [
      0.7,
      1.35
    ],
    "registered_voter_factor": 0.75,
    "likely_voter_factor": 1,
    "pollster_policy": "one latest eligible general-election survey per distinct polling organization; independent published reports only; exclude unverifiable originals, internal/partisan surveys pending explicit review",
    "interpretation": "Averages of published candidate support, not modeled vote shares, election forecasts, probabilities of winning, or confidence intervals.",
    "comparability": "Alaska initial ranked-choice ballot shares are never combined with simulated final-round or unverified two-way head-to-head percentages; Georgia and North Carolina forced-choice 100% polls are listed but excluded from first-choice aggregates."
  },
  "races": [
    {
      "id": "tx-senate",
      "state": "Texas",
      "code": "TX",
      "race_name": "Texas U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "texas-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "James Talarico",
        "rep": "Ken Paxton"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "tx-fox-oct19",
          "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw",
          "pollster_key": "fox",
          "sponsor": "Fox News",
          "field_start": "2026-10-15",
          "field_end": "2026-10-19",
          "published": "2026-10-21",
          "sample_size": 1398,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 49,
          "rep": 49,
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-senate-race-galloping-toward-photo-finish",
          "source_kind": "original poll coverage",
          "matchup_note": "Reported likely-voter matchup; 49% each."
        },
        {
          "id": "tx-emerson-oct19",
          "pollster": "Emerson College / Nexstar",
          "pollster_key": "emerson",
          "sponsor": "Nexstar Media",
          "field_start": "2026-10-17",
          "field_end": "2026-10-19",
          "published": "2026-10-23",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 48,
          "rep": 46,
          "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/",
          "source_kind": "pollster release",
          "matchup_note": "First-choice question 48–46; the forced-lean follow-up (49–48) is deliberately not used."
        },
        {
          "id": "tx-uh-oct15",
          "pollster": "University of Houston / Hobby School",
          "pollster_key": "hobby",
          "sponsor": "University of Houston Hobby School",
          "field_start": "2026-10-10",
          "field_end": "2026-10-15",
          "published": "2026-10-19",
          "sample_size": 2000,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 48,
          "rep": 46,
          "source_url": "https://www.uh.edu/news-events/stories/2026/october/10192026-hobby-texas-races.php",
          "source_kind": "university release",
          "matchup_note": "Three-way question included Brown (3%) and undecided (3%)."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "me-senate",
      "state": "Maine",
      "code": "ME",
      "race_name": "Maine U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "maine-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Troy Jackson",
        "rep": "Susan Collins"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "me-fox-oct20",
          "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw",
          "pollster_key": "fox",
          "sponsor": "Fox News",
          "field_start": "2026-10-16",
          "field_end": "2026-10-20",
          "published": "2026-10-22",
          "sample_size": 1514,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 49,
          "rep": 49,
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-nail-biter-maine-senate-race",
          "source_kind": "original poll coverage",
          "matchup_note": "Likely-voter figures."
        },
        {
          "id": "me-gmu-oct05",
          "pollster": "Washington Post / GMU Schar",
          "pollster_key": "gmu",
          "sponsor": "The Washington Post / George Mason University",
          "field_start": "2026-09-30",
          "field_end": "2026-10-05",
          "published": "2026-10-09",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 46,
          "source_url": "https://schar.gmu.edu/news/2026-10/washington-post-schar-school-poll-finds-tight-senate-contest-maine",
          "source_kind": "university release",
          "matchup_note": "Likely-voter sample."
        },
        {
          "id": "me-marist-oct04",
          "pollster": "Marist Poll",
          "pollster_key": "marist",
          "sponsor": "Marist College",
          "field_start": "2026-10-01",
          "field_end": "2026-10-04",
          "published": "2026-10-06",
          "sample_size": 1505,
          "population": "RV",
          "dem": 51,
          "rep": 47,
          "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/",
          "source_kind": "pollster release",
          "matchup_note": "Registered voters, not likely voters; reduced weight and excluded by the LV-only filter."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mi-senate",
      "state": "Michigan",
      "code": "MI",
      "race_name": "Michigan U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "michigan-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Abdul El-Sayed",
        "rep": "Mike Rogers"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "mi-marist-oct18",
          "pollster": "Marist Poll",
          "pollster_key": "marist",
          "sponsor": "Marist College",
          "field_start": "2026-10-15",
          "field_end": "2026-10-18",
          "published": "2026-10-21",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 48,
          "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-october-2026/",
          "source_kind": "pollster release",
          "matchup_note": "LV subsample size not confirmed; 1,185 is the registered-voter base, not entered as LV n."
        },
        {
          "id": "mi-yougov-oct05",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "pollster_key": "yougov",
          "sponsor": "YouGov",
          "field_start": "2026-09-28",
          "field_end": "2026-10-05",
          "published": "2026-10-07",
          "sample_size": 3949,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 49,
          "rep": 48,
          "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55703-new-polls-in-seven-states-show-tight-races-for-senate-and-governor-in-each-including-leads-for-talarico-brown-and-acton",
          "source_kind": "pollster research summary / public toplines",
          "matchup_note": "Primary YouGov release provides methodology; 49–48 cross-checked in public poll tables."
        },
        {
          "id": "mi-fox-sep28",
          "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw",
          "pollster_key": "fox",
          "sponsor": "Fox News",
          "field_start": "2026-09-24",
          "field_end": "2026-09-28",
          "published": "2026-09-30",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 49,
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-michigan-voters-split-between-el-sayed-rogers",
          "source_kind": "original poll coverage",
          "matchup_note": "Likely-voter results; published Sept. 30."
        },
        {
          "id": "mi-insider-oct22",
          "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage",
          "pollster_key": "insideradvantage",
          "sponsor": "Unconfirmed",
          "field_start": "2026-10-21",
          "field_end": "2026-10-22",
          "published": "2026-10-23",
          "sample_size": 1200,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 47,
          "rep": 46,
          "source_url": "https://www.pollingforecast.com/us/polls/1000933",
          "source_kind": "third-party listing, original release pending",
          "included": false,
          "matchup_note": "More recent poll listed by an aggregator; withheld until its original release is independently inspected."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nc-senate",
      "state": "North Carolina",
      "code": "NC",
      "race_name": "North Carolina U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "north-carolina-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Roy Cooper",
        "rep": "Michael Whatley"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "nc-surveyusa-oct11",
          "pollster": "SurveyUSA / WRAL–WSOC",
          "pollster_key": "surveyusa",
          "sponsor": "WRAL-TV and WSOC-TV",
          "field_start": "2026-10-07",
          "field_end": "2026-10-11",
          "published": "2026-10-13",
          "sample_size": 643,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 54,
          "rep": 40,
          "source_url": "https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0a876c84-9a95-4995-9218-82b1015f5d77",
          "source_kind": "pollster original report",
          "matchup_note": "First-choice responses; sample includes those already voted according to source."
        },
        {
          "id": "nc-elon-oct08",
          "pollster": "Elon University / YouGov",
          "pollster_key": "elon",
          "sponsor": "Elon University",
          "field_start": "2026-09-29",
          "field_end": "2026-10-08",
          "published": "2026-10-20",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 52,
          "rep": 39,
          "source_url": "https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2026/10/20/final-elon-university-poll-before-election-day-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-whatley-in-nc-us-senate-race/",
          "source_kind": "university original release",
          "matchup_note": "52–39 first-choice likely-voter responses. 800 is the all-adults survey size; LV subsample n is not assumed."
        },
        {
          "id": "nc-change-oct07",
          "pollster": "Change Research / Carolina Forward",
          "pollster_key": "change",
          "sponsor": "Carolina Forward",
          "field_start": "2026-10-01",
          "field_end": "2026-10-07",
          "published": "2026-10-13",
          "sample_size": 829,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 40,
          "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/the-october-2026-carolina-forward-poll/",
          "source_kind": "commissioner release / downloadable toplines",
          "matchup_note": "Sponsored by Carolina Forward (advocacy group); see linked toplines for wording."
        },
        {
          "id": "nc-activote-oct20",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "pollster_key": "activote",
          "sponsor": "ActiVote",
          "field_start": "2026-10-08",
          "field_end": "2026-10-20",
          "published": "2026-10-20",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 56.9,
          "rep": 43.1,
          "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/nc-u-s-senate/2026-10-20",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "Forced two-candidate 100% allocation; excluded from first-choice average.",
          "included": false,
          "exclusion_reason": "Different response format: forced two-candidate split without undecideds"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oh-senate",
      "state": "Ohio",
      "code": "OH",
      "race_name": "Ohio U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "ohio-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Sherrod Brown",
        "rep": "Jon Husted"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "oh-fox-oct19",
          "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw",
          "pollster_key": "fox",
          "sponsor": "Fox News",
          "field_start": "2026-10-15",
          "field_end": "2026-10-19",
          "published": "2026-10-21",
          "sample_size": 1592,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 52,
          "rep": 47,
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gender-gap-pocketbook-pain-shape-ohio-senate-race",
          "source_kind": "original news outlet poll report",
          "matchup_note": "Likely voters, survey sample n=1,592."
        },
        {
          "id": "oh-marist-oct18",
          "pollster": "Marist Poll",
          "pollster_key": "marist",
          "sponsor": "Marist University",
          "field_start": "2026-10-15",
          "field_end": "2026-10-18",
          "published": "2026-10-20",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 48,
          "rep": 44,
          "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-october-2026/",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "Likely-voter subsample size not inferred from full registered-voter base."
        },
        {
          "id": "oh-bgsu-oct09",
          "pollster": "Bowling Green State / YouGov",
          "pollster_key": "bgsu",
          "sponsor": "Bowling Green State University",
          "field_start": "2026-09-29",
          "field_end": "2026-10-09",
          "published": "2026-10-16",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 48,
          "rep": 42,
          "source_url": "https://www.bgsu.edu/arts-and-sciences/democracy-and-public-policy-research-network/bgsu-poll.html",
          "source_kind": "university original toplines",
          "matchup_note": "University/YouGov poll of 1,000 likely voters; nonresponse not reassigned."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ia-senate",
      "state": "Iowa",
      "code": "IA",
      "race_name": "Iowa U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "iowa-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Josh Turek",
        "rep": "Ashley Hinson"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "ia-marist-oct11",
          "pollster": "Marist Poll",
          "pollster_key": "marist",
          "sponsor": "Marist University",
          "field_start": "2026-10-08",
          "field_end": "2026-10-11",
          "published": "2026-10-15",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 48,
          "rep": 45,
          "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-october-2026/",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "LV topline; 1,100 is all-RV base, not assumed LV sample size."
        },
        {
          "id": "ia-emerson-oct06",
          "pollster": "Emerson College / Nexstar",
          "pollster_key": "emerson",
          "sponsor": "Nexstar Media",
          "field_start": "2026-10-05",
          "field_end": "2026-10-06",
          "published": "2026-10-09",
          "sample_size": 650,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 45,
          "rep": 47,
          "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-u-s-senate-race-tightens-sand-maintains-edge-for-governor/",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "First-choice multi-candidate ballot; Libertarian Thomas Laehn 2%, undecided 7%."
        },
        {
          "id": "ia-siena-oct01",
          "pollster": "New York Times / Siena",
          "pollster_key": "siena",
          "sponsor": "New York Times",
          "field_start": "2026-09-24",
          "field_end": "2026-10-01",
          "published": "2026-10-03",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 47,
          "rep": 48,
          "source_url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/03/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-senate-races/",
          "source_kind": "university poll release",
          "matchup_note": "Likely-voter result, sample size not confirmed from HTML release."
        },
        {
          "id": "ia-cnn-oct05",
          "pollster": "CNN / SSRS",
          "pollster_key": "cnn",
          "sponsor": "CNN",
          "field_start": "2026-09-29",
          "field_end": "2026-10-05",
          "published": "2026-10-08",
          "sample_size": 801,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 43,
          "rep": 45,
          "source_url": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnc/date/2026-10-08/segment/01",
          "source_kind": "commissioning outlet broadcast transcript",
          "matchup_note": "CNN/SSRS likely-voter figures 43–45; reported sample size cross-checked against polling listings."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nh-senate",
      "state": "New Hampshire",
      "code": "NH",
      "race_name": "New Hampshire U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "new-hampshire-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Chris Pappas",
        "rep": "John E. Sununu"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "nh-anselm-oct20",
          "pollster": "Saint Anselm College",
          "pollster_key": "anselm",
          "sponsor": "Saint Anselm College",
          "field_start": "2026-10-19",
          "field_end": "2026-10-20",
          "published": "2026-10-22",
          "sample_size": 1672,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 43,
          "source_url": "https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-democrats-leading-congressional-races-affordability-concerns-shape-election-landscape",
          "source_kind": "university original release",
          "matchup_note": "Online survey drawn from registered-voter sample; likely-voter measure."
        },
        {
          "id": "nh-yougov-oct05",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "pollster_key": "yougov",
          "sponsor": "YouGov",
          "field_start": "2026-09-28",
          "field_end": "2026-10-05",
          "published": "2026-10-07",
          "sample_size": 1520,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 51,
          "rep": 43,
          "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55703-new-polls-in-seven-states-show-tight-races-for-senate-and-governor-in-each-including-leads-for-talarico-brown-and-acton",
          "source_kind": "pollster research release and survey links; topline cross-checked with public polls",
          "matchup_note": "Direct archive lists October 2026 New Hampshire General Election; figures cross-checked to published poll listings."
        },
        {
          "id": "nh-unh-sep21",
          "pollster": "University of New Hampshire",
          "pollster_key": "unh",
          "sponsor": "UNH Survey Center",
          "field_start": "2026-09-15",
          "field_end": "2026-09-21",
          "published": "2026-09-24",
          "sample_size": 1418,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 42,
          "source_url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/",
          "source_kind": "university original research listing / cross-checked toplines",
          "matchup_note": "UNH September Granite State Poll; original university listing and published table."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ga-senate",
      "state": "Georgia",
      "code": "GA",
      "race_name": "Georgia U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "georgia-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Jon Ossoff",
        "rep": "Mike Collins"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "ga-ajc-uga-oct15",
          "pollster": "University of Georgia / AJC",
          "pollster_key": "uga",
          "sponsor": "Atlanta Journal-Constitution",
          "field_start": "2026-10-07",
          "field_end": "2026-10-15",
          "published": "2026-10-22",
          "sample_size": 1000,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 48,
          "rep": 40,
          "source_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/ajc-poll-ossoff-leads-collins-in-georgias-us-senate-race/",
          "source_kind": "commissioning outlet original poll report",
          "matchup_note": "12% undecided; AJC-commissioned University of Georgia survey."
        },
        {
          "id": "ga-activote-oct20",
          "pollster": "ActiVote",
          "pollster_key": "activote",
          "sponsor": "ActiVote",
          "field_start": "2026-10-06",
          "field_end": "2026-10-20",
          "published": "2026-10-20",
          "sample_size": 400,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 54,
          "rep": 46,
          "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/ga-u-s-senate/",
          "source_kind": "pollster release",
          "matchup_note": "Forced two-candidate 100% response; withheld from first-choice aggregation.",
          "included": false,
          "exclusion_reason": "Different response format: forced two-candidate split without undecideds"
        },
        {
          "id": "ga-yougov-sep18",
          "pollster": "YouGov",
          "pollster_key": "yougov",
          "sponsor": "YouGov",
          "field_start": "2026-09-15",
          "field_end": "2026-09-18",
          "published": "2026-09-23",
          "sample_size": 3303,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 52,
          "rep": 42,
          "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/survey-results",
          "source_kind": "pollster archive; polling topline cross-checked",
          "matchup_note": "Pollster primary archive links September 2026 Georgia General Election results."
        },
        {
          "id": "ga-bigdata-sep23",
          "pollster": "BIG DATA POLL / Public Polling Project",
          "pollster_key": "bigdata",
          "sponsor": "Public Polling Project",
          "field_start": "2026-09-21",
          "field_end": "2026-09-23",
          "published": "2026-09-24",
          "sample_size": 678,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 52.2,
          "rep": 41.0,
          "source_url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia/",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "Initial first-choice likely-voter ballot, NOT undecided-leaned 55.4–44.6; crowdfunded Public Polling Project."
        },
        {
          "id": "ga-quantus-oct17",
          "pollster": "Quantus Insights",
          "pollster_key": "quantus",
          "sponsor": "Quantus Insights",
          "field_start": "2026-10-15",
          "field_end": "2026-10-17",
          "published": "2026-10-19",
          "sample_size": 755,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 52,
          "rep": 45,
          "source_url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/georgia",
          "source_kind": "secondary poll listing; primary topline unverified",
          "matchup_note": "52–45 reported in RCP and DDHQ public records; not counted until original memo verified.",
          "included": false,
          "exclusion_reason": "Original pollster topline not independently reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "ga-trafalgar-oct09",
          "pollster": "Trafalgar Group",
          "pollster_key": "trafalgar",
          "sponsor": "Unconfirmed",
          "field_start": "2026-10-07",
          "field_end": "2026-10-09",
          "published": "2026-10-10",
          "sample_size": 1101,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 51,
          "rep": 43,
          "source_url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/georgia",
          "source_kind": "secondary poll listing",
          "matchup_note": "51–43 in public archives; excluded until original report reviewed.",
          "included": false,
          "exclusion_reason": "Original pollster release not independently reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "ak-senate",
      "state": "Alaska",
      "code": "AK",
      "race_name": "Alaska U.S. Senate",
      "slug": "alaska-2026",
      "candidates": {
        "dem": "Mary Peltola",
        "rep": "Dan Sullivan"
      },
      "polls": [
        {
          "id": "ak-dfp-oct16",
          "pollster": "Data for Progress",
          "pollster_key": "dfp",
          "sponsor": "Data for Progress",
          "field_start": "2026-10-08",
          "field_end": "2026-10-16",
          "published": "2026-10-20",
          "sample_size": 694,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 47,
          "rep": 44,
          "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "Initial first-choice support on a 4-candidate ranked-choice ballot; NOT the simulated final round (51–49)."
        },
        {
          "id": "ak-aarp-sep11",
          "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research",
          "pollster_key": "aarp",
          "sponsor": "AARP",
          "field_start": "2026-09-08",
          "field_end": "2026-09-11",
          "published": "2026-09-17",
          "sample_size": 800,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 46,
          "rep": 41,
          "source_url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-alaska/",
          "source_kind": "commissioning organization original report",
          "matchup_note": "Initial first-choice ballot support (46–41); simulated final round 53–47 is intentionally not used."
        },
        {
          "id": "ak-siena-oct01",
          "pollster": "New York Times / Siena",
          "pollster_key": "siena",
          "sponsor": "New York Times",
          "field_start": "2026-09-24",
          "field_end": "2026-10-01",
          "published": "2026-10-03",
          "sample_size": null,
          "population": "LV",
          "dem": 50,
          "rep": 43,
          "source_url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/03/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-senate-races/",
          "source_kind": "pollster original release",
          "matchup_note": "Two-candidate topline not confirmed as the same 4-candidate first-choice question; exclude.",
          "included": false,
          "exclusion_reason": "Survey ballot format not verified as comparable to four-candidate initial choices"
        }
      ],
      "editorial_note": "Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Included surveys represent initial first-choice support only, not a simulated final round. The two-way Siena release is visible for context but excluded from the first-choice average."
    }
  ]
}